{
  "schema": "ki.report.v2",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-01T06:07:25.001622Z",
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    "version": "goals_v7_cal",
    "trained_at": "2026-08-21T19:15:54.520701Z",
    "promoted_at": "2026-08-21T19:18:08.330088Z"
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    "measure": "forward reliability of the published 1X2 legs since the live model was promoted; lower is better",
    "threshold": 0.001,
    "legs_settled": 3303,
    "minimum_sample": 2000,
    "value": 0.000867,
    "status": "WITHIN THRESHOLD"
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  "latest": "/report/2026-11-01.json",
  "evaluation": "/evaluation.json",
  "evaluation_records": "/evaluation/records.csv",
  "schema_history": {
    "ki.report.v1": "fixtures, calibrated 1x2/ou25/ou45, market comparison, coverage, reliability",
    "ki.report.v2": "adds expected_goals, the scoreline distribution and its divergence from the published marginals, timestamped bookmaker snapshots, per-fixture data_quality, prediction revision history, and an uncertainty block"
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  "uncertainty": {
    "numeric_intervals": null,
    "why_no_numeric_intervals": "KI does not publish confidence intervals on its probabilities. The model is a pair of gradient-boosted Poisson rates followed by a fitted calibrator; it has no posterior from which an interval follows, and no interval KI could construct has had its empirical coverage measured. An unvalidated interval invites exactly the over-reading it appears to guard against, so none is given.",
    "what_is_given_instead": "per-fixture data_quality facts about the inputs, and the measured reliability of the published probabilities by band below",
    "empirical_calibration_1x2": [
      {
        "band": "0.0-0.1",
        "legs": 92,
        "mean_predicted": 0.0719,
        "observed_frequency": 0.0326,
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        "mean_predicted": 0.1589,
        "observed_frequency": 0.1889,
        "difference": 0.03
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        "legs": 1514,
        "mean_predicted": 0.2601,
        "observed_frequency": 0.2483,
        "difference": -0.0118
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        "band": "0.3-0.4",
        "legs": 645,
        "mean_predicted": 0.3428,
        "observed_frequency": 0.3504,
        "difference": 0.0076
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      {
        "band": "0.4-0.5",
        "legs": 485,
        "mean_predicted": 0.4464,
        "observed_frequency": 0.4268,
        "difference": -0.0196
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        "mean_predicted": 0.5429,
        "observed_frequency": 0.5817,
        "difference": 0.0388
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        "legs": 134,
        "mean_predicted": 0.6466,
        "observed_frequency": 0.6567,
        "difference": 0.0102
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        "band": "0.7-0.8",
        "legs": 81,
        "mean_predicted": 0.7464,
        "observed_frequency": 0.8025,
        "difference": 0.0561
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    "empirical_calibration_note": "settled live 1X2 legs across every model version, bucketed by published probability. One rating per leg \u2014 superseded revisions and ratings voided by a moved kickoff are excluded. Bands with fewer than 30 legs are omitted rather than shown as noise. This pools model versions, so it describes the published record rather than the current model alone; /evaluation.json breaks it down per version.",
    "full_evaluation": "/evaluation.json",
    "known_biases": [
      "Over/under 2.5 under-predicts overs. Measured on the current model: the published probability of over 2.5 sits about 5 percentage points below the realised rate. The bookmakers' own prices are biased in the same direction by a similar amount over the same fixtures, so this is a shift in scoring that neither has tracked, not a defect unique to KI.",
      "Scoring-regime changes reach the rates slowly. Measured over a 274-fixture out-of-sample window: realised goals per match moved +0.440 while the model's own expected-goals total moved +0.120, about 41% of what its inputs implied. Roughly 45% of the shortfall is the inputs lagging and 55% the mapping from inputs to rates lagging.",
      "A monthly retrain does not fix the above: refitting on data up to the window's start reduced the bias by 4.8%, against a pre-registered 25% bar."
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