Football ratings

Wednesday 29 July 2026 — next 7 days

scottish prem

Dundee Utd v RangersFri 31 Jul · 19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	11	27	62
Market	17	21	62

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	64	36

Falkirk v ST MirrenSat 1 Aug · 14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	38	29
Market	48	27	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	53	47

Model is 12 points above the market on the draw (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Aberdeen v Heart Of MidlothianSat 1 Aug · 16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	29	42
Market	22	25	53

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	56	44

Model is 11 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

ST Johnstone v KilmarnockSun 2 Aug · 13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	29	28
Market	43	27	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	53	47

Hibernian v MotherwellSun 2 Aug · 15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	25	20
Market	42	28	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	52	48

Model is 13 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Celtic v DundeeMon 3 Aug · 18:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	81	14	4
Market	79	13	8

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	68	32
Market	71	29

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UTC on match day. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. On the 13-season walk-forward the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence — when it says 74%, that happens about 76% of the time, which is as well calibrated as the market.

6 rated · 0 without enough history · model football_v1_cal · built 2026-07-29 16:29 UTC