Tuesday 4 August 2026
No fixtures scheduled.
What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UTC on match day. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.
What they are not. On the 13-season walk-forward the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence — when it says 74%, that happens about 76% of the time, which is as well calibrated as the market.
0 rated · 0 without enough history · model football_v1_cal · built 2026-08-04 06:02 UTC