Friday 7 August 2026
| Home | Draw | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38 | 25 | 37 |
| Market | 38 | 26 | 36 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61 | 39 | |
| Market | 59 | 41 |
| Home | Draw | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42 | 23 | 35 |
| Market | 31 | 29 | 40 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49 | 51 | |
| Market | 48 | 52 |
What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UTC on match day. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.
What they are not. On the 13-season walk-forward the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence — when it says 74%, that happens about 76% of the time, which is as well calibrated as the market.
2 rated · 0 without enough history · model football_v1_cal · built 2026-08-07 06:02 UTC