Football ratings
Saturday 8 August 2026 · times UK
The model's strongest calls
90%PSV Eindhoven — home winPSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard · 19:00 · market 82% · this strong, 89% land (280 cases)
81%PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard — over 2.5 goals19:00 · market 79% · this strong, 72% land (145 cases)
80%AZ Alkmaar — home winAZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag · 20:00 · market 69% · this strong, 77% land (1,215 cases)
76%Sporting CP — away winEstrela v Sporting CP · 20:30 · market 77% · this strong, 76% land (331 cases)
65%AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 65% · this strong, 66% land (1,749 cases)
61%Estrela v Sporting CP — over 2.5 goals20:30 · market 58% · this strong, 60% land (3,506 cases)
£10 on all 6 as one multiple returns about £59 if every one lands. The model puts that at 18%, the market at 13%, and the price needs 17% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.
Every fixture
eredivisie
GO Ahead Eagles v Willem II17:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 56 | 24 | 20 |
| Market | 61 | 22 | 17 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 57 | 43 | |
| Market | 61 | 39 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway
primeira liga
Guimaraes v Arouca18:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 44 | 26 | 30 |
| Market | 50 | 26 | 24 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 57 | 43 | |
| Market | 50 | 50 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway
eredivisie
PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard19:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 90 | 10 | 0 |
| Market | 82 | 11 | 8 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 81 | 19 | |
| Market | 79 | 21 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 46% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag20:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 80 | 12 | 8 |
| Market | 69 | 18 | 13 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 65 | 35 | |
| Market | 65 | 35 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 72% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 11 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
primeira liga
Estrela v Sporting CP20:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 9 | 15 | 76 |
| Market | 8 | 15 | 77 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 61 | 39 | |
| Market | 58 | 42 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway
How the calls did
✓Cambuur 0–4 Excelsior over 2.5 goals 61%
✓NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Telstar over 2.5 goals 61%
✓Maritimo 1–0 Casa Pia under 2.5 goals 60%
✓ST Mirren 1–0 ST Johnstone under 2.5 goals 58%
4 of 4 settled since yesterday · 5 of 7 since the model went live — far too few to read anything into yet.
Every match, for the record
The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.
·Resulttop pick right 2/6, we claimed 44% · 4/12 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 34% on average
·Over/under 2.5top pick right 5/6, we claimed 58% · 6/12 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 56% on average
A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.