Football ratings

Sunday 9 August 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

83%FC Porto — home winFC Porto v Alverca · 18:00 · market 81% · this strong, 80% land (1,369 cases)

71%Heerenveen v Twente — over 2.5 goals15:45 · market 64% · this strong, 66% land (489 cases)

65%FC Porto v Alverca — over 2.5 goals18:00 · market 61% · this strong, 66% land (1,749 cases)

64%Ajax — away winPEC Zwolle v Ajax · 13:30 · market 64% · this strong, 62% land (772 cases)

64%Heart Of Midlothian v Dundee Utd — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 55% · this strong, 60% land (3,506 cases)

63%Celtic — away winKilmarnock v Celtic · 13:30 · market 68% · this strong, 62% land (772 cases)

61%PEC Zwolle v Ajax — over 2.5 goals13:30 · market 64% · this strong, 60% land (3,506 cases)

£10 on all 7 as one multiple returns about £143 if every one lands. The model puts that at 6%, the market at 5%, and the price needs 7% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Every fixture

eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam v Feyenoord11:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	17	26	57
Market	20	23	57

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Groningen v Utrecht13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	23	27	49
Market	41	28	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 18 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

PEC Zwolle v Ajax13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	14	21	64
Market	16	20	64

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

scottish prem

Kilmarnock v Celtic13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	14	23	63
Market	14	18	68

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Heart Of Midlothian v Dundee Utd15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	68	20	13
Market	58	24	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Motherwell v Falkirk15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	59	26	14
Market	53	25	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

eredivisie

Heerenveen v Twente15:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	27	23	50
Market	33	25	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	71	29
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 72% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

scottish prem

Rangers v Hibernian16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	67	20	13
Market	62	21	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

primeira liga

FC Porto v Alverca18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	83	10	7
Market	81	13	7

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Benfica v Academico Viseu20:30

Not rated — Academico Viseu has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

GIL Vicente v Rio Ave20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	28	29
Market	49	27	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Moreirense v SC Braga20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	18	27	55
Market	18	25	57

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✕PSV Eindhoven 2–2 Fortuna SittardPSV Eindhoven home win 90%

✓PSV Eindhoven 2–2 Fortuna Sittard over 2.5 goals 81%

✓AZ Alkmaar 2–0 ADO Den HaagAZ Alkmaar home win 80%

✕Estrela 2–2 Sporting CPSporting CP away win 76%

✕AZ Alkmaar 2–0 ADO Den Haag over 2.5 goals 65%

✓NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Telstar over 2.5 goals 61%

✓Estrela 2–2 Sporting CP over 2.5 goals 61%

✓Maritimo 1–0 Casa Pia under 2.5 goals 60%

✓ST Mirren 1–0 ST Johnstone under 2.5 goals 58%

6 of 9 settled since yesterday · 8 of 13 since the model went live — far too few to read anything into yet.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 4/9, we claimed 59% · 6/17 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 37% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 6/9, we claimed 62% · 9/17 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 56% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

Changed after we rated them

🕒Heart Of Midlothian v Dundee Utdmoved to Sun 9 Aug · 15:00

🕒Motherwell v Falkirkmoved to Sun 9 Aug · 15:00

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures come off a single scoreline distribution and cannot contradict each other. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

11 rated · 1 not rated · model goals_v3_cal · built 2026-08-09 07:02 UK