Football ratings

Friday 14 August 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

75%Sporting CP — home winSporting CP v Guimaraes · 20:15 · market 77% · this strong, 77% land (1,215 cases)

65%Sporting CP v Guimaraes — over 2.5 goals20:15 · market 61% · this strong, 66% land (1,749 cases)

60%Telstar v Sparta Rotterdam — under 2.5 goals19:00 · market 40% · this strong, 58% land (1,094 cases)

58%Real Sociedad II v Castellón — under 2.5 goals19:30 · market 42% · this strong, 57% land (7,790 cases)

58%Wolves v Blackburn — under 2.5 goals20:00 · market 50% · this strong, 57% land (7,790 cases)

£10 on all 5 as one multiple returns about £194 if every one lands. The model puts that at 10%, the market at 4%, and the price needs 5% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Every fixture

Championship

Wolves v Blackburn20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	29	26
Market	62	22	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 17 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga 2

Real Sociedad II v Castellón19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	23	29	48

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Eredivisie

Telstar v Sparta Rotterdam19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	33	26
Market	42	26	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	40	60
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Primeira Liga

Sporting CP v Guimaraes20:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	75	15	10
Market	77	14	9

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Galatasaray v Çorum FK19:30

Not rated — Çorum FK has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

How the calls did

No calls have been settled since yesterday.

0 of 0 settled since yesterday · 12 of 21 since the model went live — far too few to read anything into yet.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures come off a single scoreline distribution and cannot contradict each other. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

4 rated · 1 not rated · model goals_v3_cal · built 2026-08-14 21:07 UK