Football ratings

Saturday 15 August 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

71%PSV Eindhoven — away winExcelsior v PSV Eindhoven · 19:00 · no price yet · this strong, 68% land (607 cases)

71%Excelsior v PSV Eindhoven — over 2.5 goals19:00 · no price yet · this strong, 66% land (489 cases)

68%Fenerbahçe — away winGençlerbirliği S.K. v Fenerbahçe · 19:30 · no price yet · this strong, 66% land (722 cases)

65%Utrecht v AZ Alkmaar — over 2.5 goals17:45 · no price yet · this strong, 66% land (1,749 cases)

61%Burton Albion v Stevenage — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 62% · this strong, 58% land (1,094 cases)

61%Cambridge United v Wigan — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 58% · this strong, 58% land (1,094 cases)

61%Willem II v NEC Nijmegen — over 2.5 goals15:30 · market 65% · this strong, 60% land (3,506 cases)

60%Portsmouth v QPR — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 52% · this strong, 58% land (1,094 cases)

60%Alaves v Getafe — under 2.5 goals18:30 · no price yet · this strong, 58% land (1,094 cases)

58%Notts County v Leicester — under 2.5 goals12:30 · market 52% · this strong, 57% land (7,790 cases)

58%Blackpool v Wycombe — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 51% · this strong, 57% land (7,790 cases)

58%Bradford v Peterborough — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 47% · this strong, 57% land (7,790 cases)

58%Mansfield Town v Doncaster — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 49% · this strong, 57% land (7,790 cases)

58%Kasımpaşa v Trabzonspor — under 2.5 goals17:00 · no price yet · this strong, 57% land (7,790 cases)

58%Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano — under 2.5 goals20:30 · no price yet · this strong, 57% land (7,790 cases)

57%Leyton Orient v Sheffield Wednesday — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 49% · this strong, 57% land (7,790 cases)

57%Alverca v Estrela — under 2.5 goals15:30 · market 56% · this strong, 57% land (7,790 cases)

55%Charlton v Derby — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 56% · this strong, 57% land (7,790 cases)

Every fixture

Championship

Bolton v Preston12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	30	24
Market	42	29	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bristol City v Millwall15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	29	43
Market	36	28	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Charlton v Derby15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	29	31
Market	35	30	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Middlesbrough v Lincoln15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	28	27
Market	70	19	11

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 24 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Norwich v West Brom15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	27	29
Market	49	27	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Portsmouth v QPR15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	33	31
Market	40	29	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	40	60
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 94% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Stoke City v Swansea15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	27	31
Market	41	29	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sheffield Utd v Birmingham17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	29	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

League One

Notts County v Leicester12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	30	42
Market	26	27	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Oxford United v Milton Keynes Dons12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	29	31
Market	42	29	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Reading v Luton12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	28	44
Market	29	27	43

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Barnsley v Bromley15:00

Not rated — Bromley has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Blackpool v Wycombe15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	31	36
Market	37	29	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bradford v Peterborough15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	31	32
Market	57	24	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 20 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Burton Albion v Stevenage15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	33	31
Market	38	31	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	39	61
Market	38	62

Under 4.5 goals: 94% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Cambridge United v Wigan15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	37	30
Market	39	30	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	39	61
Market	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 95% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on the draw (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Huddersfield v AFC Wimbledon15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	60	25	15
Market	59	23	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Leyton Orient v Sheffield Wednesday15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	29	30
Market	33	28	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	57
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Mansfield Town v Doncaster15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	30	30
Market	45	27	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Plymouth v Stockport County15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	28	26
Market	45	26	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Alaves v Getafe18:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	32	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	40	60

Under 4.5 goals: 94% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	31	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

La Liga 2

FC Andorra v AD Ceuta FC16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	28	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Cadiz v Celta de Vigo II18:00

Not rated — Celta de Vigo II has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Oviedo v Granada CF18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	29	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Mallorca v Valladolid20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	27	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Eredivisie

Willem II v NEC Nijmegen15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	18	23	59
Market	20	21	59

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Utrecht v AZ Alkmaar17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	23	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Excelsior v PSV Eindhoven19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	13	17	71

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	71	29

Under 4.5 goals: 71% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Fortuna Sittard v Cambuur20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	28	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Primeira Liga

Alverca v Estrela15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	29	22
Market	43	29	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	43	57
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Academico Viseu v Santa Clara18:00

Not rated — Academico Viseu has 1 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Rio Ave v FC Porto20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	18	23	59

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Super Lig

Kasımpaşa v Trabzonspor17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	27	29	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Konyaspor v Rizespor17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	27	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Gaziantep FK v Alanyaspor19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	28	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Fenerbahçe19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	12	20	68

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

How the calls did

✓Sporting CP 3–2 GuimaraesSporting CP home win 75%

✓Sporting CP 3–2 Guimaraes over 2.5 goals 65%

✕Telstar 1–3 Sparta Rotterdam under 2.5 goals 60%

✓Real Sociedad II 0–1 Castellón under 2.5 goals 58%

✕Wolves 2–2 Blackburn under 2.5 goals 58%

3 of 5 settled since yesterday · 15 of 26 since the model went live — far too few to read anything into yet.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 2/4, we claimed 52% · 14/33 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 45% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 2/4, we claimed 60% · 17/33 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 51% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures come off a single scoreline distribution and cannot contradict each other. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

34 rated · 3 not rated · model goals_v3_cal · built 2026-08-15 07:02 UK