Football ratings

Monday 17 August 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

63%Benfica — away winCasa Pia v Benfica · 20:15 · market 78% · this strong, 62% land (772 cases)

61%Cardiff v Wrexham — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 53% · this strong, 60% land (3,506 cases)

60%Sporting Gijon v Sabadell — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 58% · this strong, 58% land (1,094 cases)

58%Deportivo La Coruna v Elche — under 2.5 goals20:00 · market 59% · this strong, 57% land (7,790 cases)

£10 on all 4 as one multiple returns about £58 if every one lands. The model puts that at 13%, the market at 14%, and the price needs 17% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Every fixture

Championship

Cardiff v Wrexham20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	26	24
Market	38	28	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga

Deportivo La Coruna v Elche20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	31	30
Market	42	32	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	41	59

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

Sporting Gijon v Sabadell18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	31	23
Market	52	27	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	40	60
Market	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Almeria v Eldense20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	52	27	20
Market	72	17	10

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 20 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Primeira Liga

Casa Pia v Benfica20:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	14	24	63
Market	7	15	78

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 15 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Super Lig

Samsunspor v Göztepe19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	27	30
Market	43	28	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✕Feyenoord 2–2 GO Ahead EaglesFeyenoord home win 79%

✕Ajax 2–2 HeerenveenAjax home win 75%

✓Beşiktaş 1–0 EyüpsporBeşiktaş home win 75%

✓Feyenoord 2–2 GO Ahead Eagles over 2.5 goals 65%

✓Ajax 2–2 Heerenveen over 2.5 goals 65%

✕Beşiktaş 1–0 Eyüpspor over 2.5 goals 65%

✓Racing Santander 2–2 Villarreal over 2.5 goals 64%

✓Twente 3–1 PEC Zwolle over 2.5 goals 61%

✕Eibar 1–3 Tenerife under 2.5 goals 58%

✕Burgos 3–2 Cordoba under 2.5 goals 58%

✕Famalicao 1–2 Maritimo under 2.5 goals 57%

5 of 11 settled since yesterday · 29 of 55 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 8/17, we claimed 52% · 38/84 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 35% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 8/17, we claimed 57% · 46/84 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 51% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

Changed after we rated them

⚠SC Braga v GIL Vicentepostponed — our rating is void

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures come off a single scoreline distribution and cannot contradict each other. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

6 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v3_cal · built 2026-08-17 07:02 UK