Football ratings

Wednesday 19 August 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

71%Atletico Madrid — home winAtletico Madrid v Malaga · 20:00 · market 72% · this strong, 72% land (1,457 cases)

63%Atletico Madrid v Malaga — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 55% · this strong, 60% land (3,506 cases)

£10 on all 2 as one multiple returns about £24 if every one lands. The model puts that at 44%, the market at 40%, and the price needs 42% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Every fixture

La Liga

Atletico Madrid v Malaga20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	71	19	11
Market	72	18	10

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

No calls have been settled since yesterday.

0 of 0 settled since yesterday · 32 of 59 since the model went live.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures come off a single scoreline distribution and cannot contradict each other. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

1 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v4_cal · built 2026-08-19 07:01 UK