Football ratings

Saturday 22 August 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

84%Inter — home winInter v Monza · 17:30 · market 81% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)

82%Sporting CP — home winSporting CP v Alverca · 20:30 · market 79% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)

75%Fenerbahçe — home winFenerbahçe v Konyaspor · 19:30 · market 71% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

62%AZ Alkmaar — away winFortuna Sittard v AZ Alkmaar · 15:30 · market 59% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 4 as one multiple returns about £31 if every one lands. The model puts that at 32%, the market at 27%, and the price needs 32% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

74%Inter v Monza — over 2.5 goals17:30 · market 61% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

72%Sporting CP v Alverca — over 2.5 goals20:30 · market 66% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

68%Lens v Auxerre — over 2.5 goals16:15 · market 57% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

67%Fenerbahçe v Konyaspor — over 2.5 goals19:30 · market 62% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

64%Rizespor v Samsunspor — over 2.5 goals17:00 · market 52% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Fortuna Sittard v AZ Alkmaar — over 2.5 goals15:30 · market 64% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Heerenveen v PEC Zwolle — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 66% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Ipswich v Sunderland — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 46% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%AFC Wimbledon v Reading — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 53% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

60%Parma v Cagliari — under 2.5 goals19:45 · market 62% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

57%AD Ceuta FC v Las Palmas — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 55% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

57%Wigan v Leyton Orient — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 56% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

57%Stockport County v Blackpool — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 47% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

57%Estoril v Rio Ave — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 48% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Oviedo v Leganes — under 2.5 goals16:00 · market 60% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Preston v Wolves — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 47% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Stevenage v Oxford United — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 56% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

55%Peterborough v Mansfield Town — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 42% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Hull City v Manchester United12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	18	24	58
Market	10	19	71

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Everton v Crystal Palace15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	30	31
Market	43	28	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ipswich v Sunderland15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	26	32
Market	35	30	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Nottingham Forest v Leeds15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	26	26
Market	40	29	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Brentford v Tottenham17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	28	28
Market	41	25	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Championship

Birmingham v Bristol City12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	54	27	19
Market	53	25	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Lincoln v Portsmouth12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	27	25
Market	41	28	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Millwall v Norwich12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	56	25	20
Market	41	28	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Blackburn v Middlesbrough15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	27	42
Market	27	27	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Derby v Cardiff15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	27	36
Market	49	26	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Preston v Wolves15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	30	40
Market	22	26	52

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

QPR v Bolton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	27	32
Market	51	25	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Southampton v Stoke City15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	61	23	16
Market	60	22	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Swansea v Sheffield Utd15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	26	27
Market	39	28	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

West Ham v Charlton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	65	22	13
Market	69	19	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Wrexham v Watford15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	28	27
Market	50	26	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

League One

Doncaster v Barnsley12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	28	26
Market	48	25	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Luton v Notts County12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	57	25	17
Market	60	23	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

AFC Wimbledon v Reading15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	23	31	46
Market	36	28	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	40	60
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Bromley v Cambridge United15:00

Not rated — Bromley has 1 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Leicester v Burton Albion15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	27	18
Market	61	22	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Milton Keynes Dons v Huddersfield15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	27	33
Market	36	28	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Peterborough v Mansfield Town15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	30	28
Market	34	26	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Stevenage v Oxford United15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	30	40
Market	38	30	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Stockport County v Blackpool15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	30	26
Market	58	24	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	43	57
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Wigan v Leyton Orient15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	30	25
Market	43	29	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	43	57
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Wycombe v Plymouth15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	27	26
Market	35	27	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga

Athletic Club v Sevilla16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	28	22
Market	55	26	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	41	59

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Valencia v Celta Vigo18:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	28	30
Market	39	30	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Espanyol v Real Madrid20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	21	25	53
Market	13	21	66

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Serie A

Inter v Monza17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	84	11	5
Market	81	13	6

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	74	26
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 55% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Udinese v Como17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	28	47
Market	20	27	53

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Genoa v Napoli19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	20	27	53
Market	20	30	50

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	40	60

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Parma v Cagliari19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	31	40
Market	38	32	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	40	60
Market	38	62

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ligue 1

Lens v Auxerre16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	66	20	14
Market	62	22	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	68	32
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 72% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Estac Troyes v Paris FC19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	28	44
Market	29	27	43

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Le Mans v Stade Brestois 2919:45

Not rated — Le Mans has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Nice v Lorient19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	28	26
Market	44	28	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Toulouse v Lyon19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	29	47
Market	36	28	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga 2

Oviedo v Leganes16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	29	27
Market	50	30	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	40	60

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

AD Ceuta FC v Las Palmas18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	30	41
Market	33	29	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	43	57
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Albacete v Real Sociedad II18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	27	22
Market	53	26	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eldense v Cadiz20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	28	25
Market	40	31	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Scottish Premiership

Dundee Utd v Dundee17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	27	38
Market	42	29	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard v AZ Alkmaar15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	16	22	62
Market	19	22	59

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sparta Rotterdam v Utrecht17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	27	42
Market	37	28	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Heerenveen v PEC Zwolle20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	63	22	15
Market	60	21	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Primeira Liga

Maritimo v Academico Viseu15:30

Not rated — Academico Viseu has 2 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Estoril v Rio Ave18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	30	26
Market	48	27	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	43	57
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sporting CP v Alverca20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	82	13	5
Market	79	13	8

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	72	28
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 72% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Rizespor v Samsunspor17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	25	30
Market	44	29	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Çorum FK v Kasımpaşa17:00

Not rated — Çorum FK has 1 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Fenerbahçe v Konyaspor19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	75	17	8
Market	71	18	11

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	67	33
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✓Erzurumspor FK 0–4 GalatasarayGalatasaray away win 76%

✓Erzurumspor FK 0–4 Galatasaray over 2.5 goals 67%

✓Arsenal 3–0 Coventry over 2.5 goals 64%

✓Marseille 4–0 Strasbourg over 2.5 goals 64%

4 of 4 settled since yesterday · 37 of 65 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 4/5, we claimed 58% · 45/96 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 56% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 4/5, we claimed 61% · 54/96 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 59% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

49 rated · 4 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-08-22 07:07 UK