Football ratings

Sunday 23 August 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

75%PSV Eindhoven — home winPSV Eindhoven v Groningen · 13:30 · market 71% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

74%FC Porto — home winFC Porto v Arouca · 20:30 · market 79% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

71%Manchester City — home winManchester City v Bournemouth · 14:00 · market 64% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

63%Juventus — away winFrosinone v Juventus · 17:30 · market 65% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

63%Paris Saint Germain — away winRennes v Paris Saint Germain · 19:45 · market 62% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

62%Feyenoord — away winCambuur v Feyenoord · 15:45 · market 72% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

61%Lille — away winAngers v Lille · 14:00 · market 55% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 7 as one multiple returns about £115 if every one lands. The model puts that at 6%, the market at 6%, and the price needs 9% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

74%Rennes v Paris Saint Germain — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 65% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

71%Manchester City v Bournemouth — over 2.5 goals14:00 · market 67% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

71%PSV Eindhoven v Groningen — over 2.5 goals13:30 · market 73% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

67%Cambuur v Feyenoord — over 2.5 goals15:45 · market 67% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

62%Newcastle v Liverpool — over 2.5 goals16:30 · market 64% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Tenerife v Almeria — under 2.5 goals20:30 · market 54% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

62%FC Porto v Arouca — over 2.5 goals20:30 · market 59% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Santa Clara v Famalicao — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 63% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

60%Sporting Gijon v Burgos — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 60% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

58%Venezia v Lecce — under 2.5 goals17:30 · market 58% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Castellón v Sabadell — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 44% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

55%Torino v AC Milan — under 2.5 goals19:45 · market 50% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Brighton v Aston Villa14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	26	29
Market	43	27	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Manchester City v Bournemouth14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	71	17	12
Market	64	20	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	71	29
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 66% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Newcastle v Liverpool16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	25	46
Market	25	25	51

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Championship

West Brom v Burnley12:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	29	32
Market	33	29	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Atletico Madrid v Villarreal16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	28	31
Market	51	25	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Getafe v Racing Santander18:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	29	33
Market	43	32	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	33	67

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Elche v Barcelona20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	17	24	60
Market	11	17	72

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Serie A

Frosinone v Juventus17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	14	22	63
Market	14	21	65

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Venezia v Lecce17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	31	30
Market	48	29	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Atalanta v Sassuolo19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	24	21
Market	62	22	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Torino v AC Milan19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	30	39
Market	21	26	53

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ligue 1

Angers v Lille14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	15	24	61
Market	19	26	55

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Le Havre v Monaco16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	17	24	58
Market	26	25	49

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Rennes v Paris Saint Germain19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	17	19	63
Market	18	21	62

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	74	26
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 65% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

Eibar v Valladolid16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	28	25
Market	42	33	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	41	59

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Castellón v Sabadell18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	60	26	14
Market	62	22	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sporting Gijon v Burgos18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	30	25
Market	39	33	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	40	60
Market	40	60

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on home win (bet365). Worth a look at why.

Tenerife v Almeria20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	32	35
Market	31	30	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	38	62
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

GO Ahead Eagles v ADO Den Haag11:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	56	24	20
Market	55	24	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

PSV Eindhoven v Groningen13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	75	16	9
Market	71	16	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	71	29
Market	73	27

Under 4.5 goals: 67% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Cambuur v Feyenoord15:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	17	21	62
Market	11	16	72

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	67	33
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 72% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Primeira Liga

Guimaraes v Nacional15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	27	23
Market	56	25	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Santa Clara v Famalicao18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	31	32
Market	35	32	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	38	62
Market	37	63

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FC Porto v Arouca20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	74	18	8
Market	79	14	7

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Eyüpspor v Gaziantep FK17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	29	34
Market	32	31	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Trabzonspor v Başakşehir17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	27	29
Market	44	27	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Alanyaspor v Beşiktaş19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	28	47
Market	24	26	50

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Göztepe v Gençlerbirliği S.K.19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	58	25	16
Market	58	24	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✓Inter 4–1 MonzaInter home win 84%

✓Sporting CP 3–1 AlvercaSporting CP home win 82%

✓Fenerbahçe 4–2 KonyasporFenerbahçe home win 75%

✓Inter 4–1 Monza over 2.5 goals 74%

✓Sporting CP 3–1 Alverca over 2.5 goals 72%

✓Lens 5–2 Auxerre over 2.5 goals 68%

✓Fenerbahçe 4–2 Konyaspor over 2.5 goals 67%

✕Rizespor 0–2 Samsunspor over 2.5 goals 64%

✓Fortuna Sittard 0–2 AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar away win 62%

✕Fortuna Sittard 0–2 AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 goals 61%

✕Heerenveen 0–2 PEC Zwolle over 2.5 goals 61%

✓Ipswich 2–1 Sunderland over 2.5 goals 60%

✓AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Reading under 2.5 goals 60%

✓Parma 0–1 Cagliari under 2.5 goals 60%

✓AD Ceuta FC 0–2 Las Palmas under 2.5 goals 57%

✓Wigan 0–2 Leyton Orient under 2.5 goals 57%

✕Stockport County 1–2 Blackpool under 2.5 goals 57%

✓Estoril 0–2 Rio Ave under 2.5 goals 57%

✓Oviedo 0–1 Leganes under 2.5 goals 56%

✕Preston 1–3 Wolves under 2.5 goals 56%

✕Stevenage 1–2 Oxford United under 2.5 goals 56%

✕Peterborough 2–1 Mansfield Town under 2.5 goals 55%

15 of 22 settled since yesterday · 52 of 87 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 19/49, we claimed 50% · 64/145 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 36% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 30/49, we claimed 56% · 83/145 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 52% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

28 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-08-23 07:05 UK