Football ratings

Friday 28 August 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

82%Bayern München — home winBayern München v VfB Stuttgart · 19:30 · market 77% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)

64%Sporting CP — away winRio Ave v Sporting CP · 20:15 · market 72% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 2 as one multiple returns about £16 if every one lands. The model puts that at 53%, the market at 55%, and the price needs 62% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

83%Bayern München v VfB Stuttgart — over 2.5 goals19:30 · market 79% · this strong, 75% land (134 cases)

64%Tenerife v Sporting Gijon — under 2.5 goals20:00 · market 58% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Crystal Palace v Manchester City20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	21	25	54
Market	19	23	58

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Championship

Wrexham v Birmingham20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	27	26
Market	39	29	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga

Racing Santander v Elche18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	27	28
Market	46	28	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Alaves v Villarreal20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	27	27	46
Market	30	27	43

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Serie A

AC Milan v Venezia19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	66	22	12
Market	68	20	12

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

Bayern München v VfB Stuttgart19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	82	12	6
Market	77	13	9

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	83	17
Market	79	21

Under 4.5 goals: 53% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ligue 1

Lille v Paris Saint Germain19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	29	40
Market	21	24	55

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 15 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga 2

Tenerife v Sporting Gijon20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	32	33
Market	43	30	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	36	64
Market	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Eredivisie

Groningen v Fortuna Sittard19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	26	24
Market	61	21	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Primeira Liga

Rio Ave v Sporting CP20:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	13	23	64
Market	12	17	72

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Super Lig

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Erzurumspor FK19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	57	26	17
Market	50	27	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

How the calls did

✓Barcelona 2–0 Athletic ClubBarcelona home win 73%

1 of 1 settled since yesterday · 71 of 109 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 1/2, we claimed 56% · 87/184 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 52% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 0/2, we claimed 54% · 113/184 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 46% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

11 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-08-28 07:03 UK