Football ratings

Saturday 29 August 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

82%Borussia Dortmund — home winBorussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV · 17:30 · market 73% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)

77%Galatasaray — home winGalatasaray v Göztepe · 19:30 · market 68% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

77%Celtic — home winCeltic v Falkirk · 15:00 · market 79% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

75%Juventus — home winJuventus v Parma · 19:45 · market 77% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

71%AZ Alkmaar — home winAZ Alkmaar v GO Ahead Eagles · 17:45 · market 68% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

65%NEC Nijmegen — away winPEC Zwolle v NEC Nijmegen · 20:00 · market 57% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 6 as one multiple returns about £65 if every one lands. The model puts that at 17%, the market at 12%, and the price needs 15% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

74%RB Leipzig v Borussia Mönchengladbach — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 64% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

70%Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV — over 2.5 goals17:30 · market 64% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

69%AZ Alkmaar v GO Ahead Eagles — over 2.5 goals17:45 · market 70% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

65%Galatasaray v Göztepe — over 2.5 goals19:30 · market 57% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

65%Strasbourg v Lens — over 2.5 goals16:15 · market 58% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

64%PEC Zwolle v NEC Nijmegen — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 67% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

64%FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn 07 — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 58% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Notts County v Burton Albion — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 53% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

63%Liverpool v Nottingham Forest — over 2.5 goals12:30 · market 60% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Alverca v Santa Clara — under 2.5 goals15:30 · market 63% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

62%Celtic v Falkirk — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 71% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Konyaspor v Kocaelispor — under 2.5 goals17:00 · market 54% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

59%Stevenage v Doncaster — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 56% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

58%Sabadell v Almeria — under 2.5 goals16:00 · market 58% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

57%Leganes v Eldense — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 55% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Monza v Udinese — under 2.5 goals17:30 · market 58% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Sevilla v Atletico Madrid — under 2.5 goals20:30 · market 51% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

55%Cambridge United v Huddersfield — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 45% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Liverpool v Nottingham Forest12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	63	21	15
Market	63	21	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bournemouth v Everton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	27	27
Market	47	27	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Coventry v Hull City15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	64	23	14
Market	53	27	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Tottenham v Newcastle17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	28	31
Market	42	26	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Championship

Derby v Swansea12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	27	33
Market	41	29	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Middlesbrough v West Brom12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	26	27
Market	55	25	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Wolves v Stoke City12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	27	20
Market	63	22	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Blackburn v QPR15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	29	35
Market	38	28	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bolton v Lincoln15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	29	28
Market	39	29	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bristol City v Portsmouth15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	30	34
Market	43	28	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Cardiff v Sheffield Utd15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	26	28
Market	36	27	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Charlton v Preston15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	26	28
Market	45	28	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Norwich v Burnley15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	27	32
Market	43	27	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Southampton v Millwall15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	27	36
Market	48	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Watford v West Ham15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	23	27	50
Market	24	25	51

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

League One

Blackpool v Peterborough12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	54	26	20
Market	53	24	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Milton Keynes Dons v Leicester12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	26	40
Market	36	26	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Cambridge United v Huddersfield15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	30	41
Market	33	27	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Leyton Orient v Barnsley15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	29	32
Market	43	25	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Notts County v Burton Albion15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	33	32
Market	41	28	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	37	63
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 94% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Plymouth v Bradford15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	28	22
Market	44	27	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Sheffield Wednesday v Bromley15:00

Not rated — Bromley has 2 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Stevenage v Doncaster15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	31	30
Market	41	29	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	41	59
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Stockport County v Wycombe15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	27	34
Market	50	26	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga

Levante v Real Betis16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	28	46
Market	28	28	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Real Sociedad v Espanyol18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	28	30
Market	51	26	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Sevilla v Atletico Madrid20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	30	40
Market	25	28	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Serie A

Fiorentina v Frosinone17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	28	23
Market	58	23	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Monza v Udinese17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	29	46
Market	31	30	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Sassuolo v Torino17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	27	27
Market	42	29	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Juventus v Parma19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	75	17	7
Market	77	15	8

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

1. FC Köln v 1899 Hoffenheim14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	28	43
Market	31	26	43

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn 0714:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	67	20	13
Market	58	23	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

RB Leipzig v Borussia Mönchengladbach14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	66	19	15
Market	60	21	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	74	26
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 67% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

SV Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen14:30

Not rated — SV Elversberg has 2 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	28	37
Market	36	27	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	82	13	5
Market	73	16	11

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	70	30
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 71% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ligue 1

Strasbourg v Lens16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	27	24	49
Market	26	27	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Auxerre v Angers19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	52	27	21
Market	49	27	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Lorient v Estac Troyes19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	64	23	13
Market	51	27	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Lyon v Le Havre19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	64	22	13
Market	65	21	14

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Stade Brestois 29 v Toulouse19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	28	29
Market	36	28	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga 2

Sabadell v Almeria16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	30	41
Market	36	30	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Albacete v Oviedo18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	28	39
Market	39	31	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	38	62

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Leganes v Eldense18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	29	23
Market	50	27	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	43	57
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Girona v Las Palmas20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	27	29
Market	55	26	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Scottish Premiership

Celtic v Falkirk15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	77	16	7
Market	79	13	8

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	71	29

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Heart Of Midlothian v ST Johnstone15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	68	20	12
Market	55	24	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	26	30
Market	38	27	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

Excelsior v Sparta Rotterdam15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	27	33
Market	40	25	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

AZ Alkmaar v GO Ahead Eagles17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	71	18	12
Market	68	17	14

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 70% · happens 86% of the time anyway

PEC Zwolle v NEC Nijmegen20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	15	20	65
Market	22	21	57

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Primeira Liga

Alverca v Santa Clara15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	31	28
Market	35	32	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	38	62
Market	37	63

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Arouca v Maritimo15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	27	28
Market	44	29	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Academico Viseu v FC Porto18:00

Not rated — Academico Viseu has 3 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Super Lig

Konyaspor v Kocaelispor17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	31	28
Market	47	28	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	40	60
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Galatasaray v Göztepe19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	77	16	7
Market	68	19	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Gaziantep FK v Rizespor19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	27	38
Market	38	27	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✓Bayern München 5–1 VfB Stuttgart over 2.5 goals 83%

✓Bayern München 5–1 VfB StuttgartBayern München home win 82%

✓Rio Ave 0–4 Sporting CPSporting CP away win 64%

✓Tenerife 0–1 Sporting Gijon under 2.5 goals 64%

4 of 4 settled since yesterday · 75 of 113 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 5/11, we claimed 53% · 92/195 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 43% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 8/11, we claimed 56% · 121/195 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 56% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

55 rated · 3 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-08-29 07:09 UK