Football ratings

Sunday 30 August 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

79%Feyenoord — home winFeyenoord v ADO Den Haag · 13:30 · market 83% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

75%Real Madrid — home winReal Madrid v Malaga · 16:00 · market 87% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

67%Rangers — away winAberdeen v Rangers · 12:00 · market 51% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)

64%Twente — away winCambuur v Twente · 19:00 · market 70% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

63%Ajax — away winTelstar v Ajax · 15:45 · market 63% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 5 as one multiple returns about £45 if every one lands. The model puts that at 16%, the market at 16%, and the price needs 22% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

69%Feyenoord v ADO Den Haag — over 2.5 goals13:30 · market 75% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

68%Cambuur v Twente — over 2.5 goals19:00 · market 69% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

66%Manchester United v Ipswich — over 2.5 goals16:30 · market 63% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

63%FC Augsburg v FC Schalke 04 — over 2.5 goals16:30 · market 54% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Utrecht v PSV Eindhoven — over 2.5 goals11:15 · market 72% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Aberdeen v Rangers — over 2.5 goals12:00 · market 58% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Real Madrid v Malaga — over 2.5 goals16:00 · market 73% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Eyüpspor v Alanyaspor — under 2.5 goals17:00 · market 60% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

61%Telstar v Ajax — over 2.5 goals15:45 · market 73% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

59%ST Mirren v Motherwell — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 51% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

59%Cadiz v Valladolid — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 60% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

58%Casa Pia v Moreirense — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 61% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

57%Nacional v Estrela — under 2.5 goals15:30 · market 52% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

57%Napoli v Como — under 2.5 goals17:30 · market 58% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Lazio v Genoa — under 2.5 goals19:45 · market 63% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

55%Dundee v Hibernian — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 48% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Chelsea v Brighton14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	29	35
Market	51	24	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Leeds v Brentford14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	28	30
Market	37	28	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sunderland v Fulham14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	28	35
Market	39	29	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Manchester United v Ipswich16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	68	19	13
Market	69	19	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	66	34
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

League One

AFC Wimbledon v Wigan14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	23	28	49
Market	30	29	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Mansfield Town v Luton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	28	38
Market	35	26	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Real Madrid v Malaga16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	75	17	8
Market	87	8	5

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	73	27

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Deportivo La Coruna v Valencia18:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	29	40
Market	37	32	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	37	63

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Celta Vigo v Athletic Club20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	29	36
Market	40	30	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Serie A

Napoli v Como17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	30	27
Market	38	31	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	43	57
Market	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Cagliari v Inter19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	22	26	52
Market	12	21	67

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 15 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Lazio v Genoa19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	27	18
Market	45	32	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	37	63

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Bundesliga

SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	28	26
Market	50	26	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FC Augsburg v FC Schalke 0416:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	25	29
Market	44	26	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ligue 1

Paris FC v Nice14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	29	31
Market	46	28	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Rennes v Le Mans16:15

Not rated — Le Mans has 1 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Monaco v Marseille19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	26	32
Market	39	27	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

FC Andorra v Eibar16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	27	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Cadiz v Valladolid18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	31	36
Market	38	31	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	41	59
Market	40	60

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Mallorca v AD Ceuta FC18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	58	25	17
Market	67	20	14

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Cordoba v Granada CF20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	26	24
Market	52	29	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Scottish Premiership

Aberdeen v Rangers12:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	13	20	67
Market	24	25	51

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 16 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Dundee v Hibernian15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	31	36
Market	32	27	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

ST Mirren v Motherwell15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	32	37
Market	37	30	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	41	59
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

Utrecht v PSV Eindhoven11:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	19	23	58
Market	20	20	61

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	72	28

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Feyenoord v ADO Den Haag13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	79	14	7
Market	83	11	6

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	75	25

Under 4.5 goals: 69% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Willem II v Heerenveen13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	26	45
Market	24	23	53

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Telstar v Ajax15:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	15	22	63
Market	18	19	63

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	73	27

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Cambuur v Twente19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	16	20	64
Market	13	18	70

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	68	32
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 71% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Primeira Liga

Nacional v Estrela15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	30	26
Market	40	29	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	43	57
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Casa Pia v Moreirense18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	30	36
Market	40	31	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	39	61

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Famalicao v GIL Vicente20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	27	20
Market	45	30	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Super Lig

Eyüpspor v Alanyaspor17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	31	37
Market	30	30	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	39	61
Market	40	60

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Başakşehir v Kasımpaşa19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	26	20
Market	57	24	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Samsunspor v Fenerbahçe19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	19	24	57
Market	19	23	59

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✓Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Hamburger SVBorussia Dortmund home win 82%

✓Galatasaray 3–2 GöztepeGalatasaray home win 77%

✓Juventus 2–0 ParmaJuventus home win 75%

✓AZ Alkmaar 5–2 GO Ahead EaglesAZ Alkmaar home win 71%

✕Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Hamburger SV over 2.5 goals 70%

✓AZ Alkmaar 5–2 GO Ahead Eagles over 2.5 goals 69%

✓Galatasaray 3–2 Göztepe over 2.5 goals 65%

✓Strasbourg 2–1 Lens over 2.5 goals 65%

✓PEC Zwolle 1–3 NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen away win 65%

✓PEC Zwolle 1–3 NEC Nijmegen over 2.5 goals 64%

✓Alverca 1–1 Santa Clara under 2.5 goals 62%

✕Konyaspor 1–2 Kocaelispor under 2.5 goals 60%

✓Sabadell 1–0 Almeria under 2.5 goals 58%

✓Leganes 1–0 Eldense under 2.5 goals 57%

✕Monza 2–3 Udinese under 2.5 goals 56%

✕Sevilla 1–3 Atletico Madrid under 2.5 goals 56%

12 of 16 settled since yesterday · 91 of 137 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 15/26, we claimed 51% · 121/250 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 41% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 15/26, we claimed 57% · 154/250 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 52% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

34 rated · 1 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-08-30 21:03 UK