Football ratings
Monday 31 August 2026 · times UK
The model's strongest calls
83%Barcelona — home winBarcelona v Rayo Vallecano · 20:30 · market 85% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)
75%Benfica — home winBenfica v Estoril · 20:15 · market 80% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)
£10 on all 2 as one multiple returns about £13 if every one lands. The model puts that at 62%, the market at 68%, and the price needs 80% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.
Goals — supporting, not headline
These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.
78%Benfica v Estoril — over 2.5 goals20:15 · market 69% · this strong, 75% land (134 cases)
69%Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano — over 2.5 goals20:30 · market 71% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)
57%Lecce v AS Roma — under 2.5 goals17:30 · market 53% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)
57%Osasuna v Getafe — under 2.5 goals18:30 · market 70% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)
56%Burgos v Real Sociedad II — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 55% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)
Every fixture
Premier League
Aston Villa v Arsenal20:00
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 51 | 49 | |
| Market | 52 | 48 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway
No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.
La Liga
Osasuna v Getafe18:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 57 | 27 | 16 |
| Market | 43 | 34 | 23 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 43 | 57 | |
| Market | 30 | 70 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 14 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano20:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 83 | 12 | 5 |
| Market | 85 | 10 | 5 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 69 | 31 | |
| Market | 71 | 29 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 68% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Serie A
Lecce v AS Roma17:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 16 | 27 | 57 |
| Market | 13 | 22 | 65 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 43 | 57 | |
| Market | 47 | 53 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 9 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Atalanta v Bologna19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 47 | 28 | 25 |
| Market | 50 | 26 | 23 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 48 | 52 | |
| Market | 50 | 50 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway
La Liga 2
Burgos v Real Sociedad II18:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 42 | 30 | 28 |
| Market | 50 | 29 | 21 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 44 | 56 | |
| Market | 45 | 55 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 8 points below the market on home win (bet365). Worth a look at why.
Celta de Vigo II v Castellón20:30
Not rated — Celta de Vigo II has 2 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.
Primeira Liga
Benfica v Estoril20:15
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 75 | 16 | 9 |
| Market | 80 | 12 | 8 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 78 | 22 | |
| Market | 69 | 31 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 65% · happens 86% of the time anyway
SC Braga v Guimaraes20:15
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 45 | 27 | 29 |
| Market | 55 | 26 | 19 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 58 | 42 | |
| Market | 50 | 50 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 10 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Super Lig
Amed v Trabzonspor19:30
Not rated — Amed has 2 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.
Beşiktaş v Çorum FK19:30
Not rated — Çorum FK has 2 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.
How the calls did
✕Feyenoord 2–2 ADO Den HaagFeyenoord home win 79%
✓Real Madrid 4–0 MalagaReal Madrid home win 75%
✓Feyenoord 2–2 ADO Den Haag over 2.5 goals 69%
✓Cambuur 1–4 Twente over 2.5 goals 68%
✓Aberdeen 0–1 RangersRangers away win 67%
✓Manchester United 5–2 Ipswich over 2.5 goals 66%
✓Cambuur 1–4 TwenteTwente away win 64%
✓FC Augsburg 3–0 FC Schalke 04 over 2.5 goals 63%
✓Telstar 0–4 AjaxAjax away win 63%
✓Utrecht 1–6 PSV Eindhoven over 2.5 goals 62%
✕Aberdeen 0–1 Rangers over 2.5 goals 62%
✓Real Madrid 4–0 Malaga over 2.5 goals 62%
✕Eyüpspor 2–1 Alanyaspor under 2.5 goals 61%
✓Telstar 0–4 Ajax over 2.5 goals 61%
✕ST Mirren 3–3 Motherwell under 2.5 goals 59%
✓Cadiz 1–1 Valladolid under 2.5 goals 59%
✓Casa Pia 0–1 Moreirense under 2.5 goals 58%
✕Nacional 2–3 Estrela under 2.5 goals 57%
✕Napoli 1–2 Como under 2.5 goals 57%
✓Lazio 1–0 Genoa under 2.5 goals 56%
✕Dundee 1–2 Hibernian under 2.5 goals 55%
14 of 21 settled since yesterday · 105 of 158 since the model went live.
Every match, for the record
The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.
·Resulttop pick right 18/34, we claimed 49% · 139/284 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 41% on average
·Over/under 2.5top pick right 19/34, we claimed 57% · 172/284 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 52% on average
A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.