Football ratings
Wednesday 2 September 2026 · times UK
The model's strongest calls
77%Celtic — home winCeltic v Aberdeen · 19:45 · market 75% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)
66%Rangers — away winFalkirk v Rangers · 20:00 · market 60% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)
£10 on all 2 as one multiple returns about £20 if every one lands. The model puts that at 51%, the market at 45%, and the price needs 49% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.
Goals — supporting, not headline
These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.
65%Celtic v Aberdeen — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 67% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)
63%Luton v Stockport County — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 57% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)
62%Falkirk v Rangers — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 59% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)
60%Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon — under 2.5 goals19:45 · market 55% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)
Every fixture
Championship
Millwall v Wrexham19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 55 | 25 | 20 |
| Market | 43 | 28 | 29 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 52 | 48 | |
| Market | 49 | 51 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 12 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
QPR v Cardiff19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 50 | 25 | 25 |
| Market | 49 | 24 | 27 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 58 | 42 | |
| Market | 57 | 43 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway
West Brom v Charlton19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 48 | 27 | 24 |
| Market | 54 | 25 | 21 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 50 | 50 | |
| Market | 47 | 53 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Burnley v Middlesbrough20:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 30 | 27 | 43 |
| Market | 34 | 26 | 39 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 53 | 47 | |
| Market | 55 | 45 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway
League One
Barnsley v Blackpool19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 44 | 30 | 27 |
| Market | 43 | 27 | 30 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 45 | 55 | |
| Market | 56 | 44 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 52 | 30 | 18 |
| Market | 47 | 28 | 24 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 40 | 60 | |
| Market | 45 | 55 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Luton v Stockport County19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 40 | 26 | 34 |
| Market | 41 | 26 | 33 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 63 | 37 | |
| Market | 57 | 43 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Wigan v Milton Keynes Dons19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 47 | 28 | 25 |
| Market | 40 | 28 | 32 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 52 | 48 | |
| Market | 48 | 52 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Reading v Mansfield Town20:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 42 | 29 | 29 |
| Market | 47 | 26 | 28 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 49 | 51 | |
| Market | 54 | 46 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Scottish Premiership
Celtic v Aberdeen19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 77 | 16 | 7 |
| Market | 75 | 16 | 8 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 65 | 35 | |
| Market | 67 | 33 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Dundee v ST Johnstone19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 44 | 27 | 28 |
| Market | 36 | 27 | 37 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 54 | 46 | |
| Market | 52 | 48 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 8 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Kilmarnock v ST Mirren19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 31 | 28 | 41 |
| Market | 33 | 27 | 40 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 53 | 47 | |
| Market | 55 | 45 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Motherwell v Dundee Utd19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 53 | 26 | 21 |
| Market | 48 | 26 | 26 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 55 | 45 | |
| Market | 56 | 44 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Falkirk v Rangers20:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 13 | 20 | 66 |
| Market | 18 | 22 | 60 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 62 | 38 | |
| Market | 59 | 41 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 6 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
How the calls did
✓Lincoln 0–0 Blackburn under 2.5 goals 56%
1 of 1 settled since yesterday · 111 of 166 since the model went live.
Every match, for the record
The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.
·Resulttop pick right 5/14, we claimed 42% · 151/306 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 35% on average
·Over/under 2.5top pick right 5/14, we claimed 53% · 181/306 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 50% on average
A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.