Football ratings

Saturday 5 September 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

80%Sporting CP — home winSporting CP v Nacional · 20:30 · market 80% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)

77%Manchester City — home winManchester City v Coventry · 15:00 · market 84% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

71%Bayern München — away winFC Schalke 04 v Bayern München · 17:30 · market 83% · this strong, 74% land (779 cases)

63%Celtic — away winST Mirren v Celtic · 20:00 · market 65% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

61%RB Leipzig — away winWerder Bremen v RB Leipzig · 14:30 · market 55% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

61%Benfica — away winMaritimo v Benfica · 18:00 · market 76% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 6 as one multiple returns about £50 if every one lands. The model puts that at 10%, the market at 15%, and the price needs 20% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

71%FC Schalke 04 v Bayern München — over 2.5 goals17:30 · market 78% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

71%Sporting CP v Nacional — over 2.5 goals20:30 · market 67% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

70%Manchester City v Coventry — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 73% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

69%Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 67% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

68%Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 65% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

66%Maritimo v Benfica — over 2.5 goals18:00 · market 62% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

65%Real Sociedad II v Tenerife — under 2.5 goals13:00 · market 57% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

63%Fenerbahçe v Beşiktaş — over 2.5 goals18:00 · market 55% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Lens v Lorient — over 2.5 goals16:15 · market 58% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Utrecht v GO Ahead Eagles — over 2.5 goals17:45 · market 63% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%West Ham v Derby — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 57% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Rangers v Motherwell — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 60% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%SC Paderborn 07 v SC Freiburg — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 58% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Peterborough v Sheffield Wednesday — over 2.5 goals12:30 · market 62% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Ajax v PSV Eindhoven — over 2.5 goals19:00 · market 74% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

58%Stoke City v Charlton — under 2.5 goals12:30 · market 57% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

57%Sporting Gijon v Girona — under 2.5 goals15:15 · market 51% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

57%Alverca v SC Braga — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 54% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Burton Albion v Cambridge United — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 55% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Newcastle v Bournemouth12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	27	29
Market	45	26	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Brentford v Sunderland15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	28	27
Market	58	24	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Brighton v Leeds15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	66	21	13
Market	48	27	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 18 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Fulham v Crystal Palace15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	54	26	20
Market	41	29	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Manchester City v Coventry15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	77	15	8
Market	84	10	6

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	70	30
Market	73	27

Under 4.5 goals: 67% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Nottingham Forest v Tottenham15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	26	32
Market	40	27	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Hull City v Aston Villa17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	30	35
Market	23	26	51

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Championship

Lincoln v Southampton12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	27	41
Market	24	23	53

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Preston v Blackburn12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	28	42
Market	39	29	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Stoke City v Charlton12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	31	35
Market	44	29	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Burnley v Bristol City15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	28	28
Market	49	26	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Millwall v Bolton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	26	24
Market	48	29	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Portsmouth v Cardiff15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	26	40
Market	40	26	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

QPR v Middlesbrough15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	27	41
Market	30	26	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sheffield Utd v Norwich15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	29	37
Market	37	27	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

West Brom v Watford15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	27	28
Market	51	26	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

West Ham v Derby15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	64	21	15
Market	67	19	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Swansea v Wrexham20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	26	21
Market	44	27	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

League One

Peterborough v Sheffield Wednesday12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	22	24	54
Market	31	24	45

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Wigan v Stockport County12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	29	31
Market	32	26	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Barnsley v Stevenage15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	29	32
Market	45	28	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Bradford v Mansfield Town15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	30	35
Market	53	25	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Burton Albion v Cambridge United15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	30	26
Market	35	28	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Doncaster v Plymouth15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	28	37
Market	38	27	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Huddersfield v Notts County15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	56	24	20
Market	57	23	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Leicester v Oxford United15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	27	28
Market	57	22	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Luton v Leyton Orient15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	25	20
Market	57	23	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Reading v Blackpool15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	29	25
Market	48	25	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Wycombe v Milton Keynes Dons15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	26	25
Market	41	26	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga

Athletic Club v Atletico Madrid15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	28	40
Market	31	28	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Rayo Vallecano v Racing Santander17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	26	34
Market	43	28	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Villarreal v Deportivo La Coruna20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	65	21	14
Market	63	21	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Serie A

Fiorentina v Torino14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	29	29
Market	49	29	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Inter v Napoli17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	61	22	16
Market	56	25	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

AS Roma v Atalanta19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	56	25	19
Market	55	25	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	28	41
Market	33	25	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	67	20	14
Market	65	19	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Borussia Mönchengladbach v SV Elversberg14:30

Not rated — SV Elversberg has 3 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

SC Paderborn 07 v SC Freiburg14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	25	49
Market	27	25	48

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	17	21	61
Market	23	22	55

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	68	32
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

FC Schalke 04 v Bayern München17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	12	18	71
Market	7	10	83

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	71	29
Market	78	22

Under 4.5 goals: 70% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ligue 1

Lens v Lorient16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	60	22	17
Market	65	20	15

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Le Havre v Stade Brestois 2919:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	26	45
Market	36	29	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Nice v Le Mans19:45

Not rated — Le Mans has 2 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

La Liga 2

Real Sociedad II v Tenerife13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	32	33
Market	39	30	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	35	65
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 94% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sporting Gijon v Girona15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	27	29	44
Market	32	29	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	43	57
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

AD Ceuta FC v Celta de Vigo II17:30

Not rated — Celta de Vigo II has 3 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Valladolid v FC Andorra17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	29	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Eldense v Mallorca20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	27	48
Market	26	28	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Scottish Premiership

Aberdeen v Kilmarnock15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	28	30
Market	55	24	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Dundee Utd v Falkirk15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	27	22
Market	48	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Rangers v Motherwell15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	56	24	21
Market	65	20	15

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

ST Mirren v Celtic20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	15	22	63
Market	16	19	65

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen v Feyenoord15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	26	40
Market	34	23	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Utrecht v GO Ahead Eagles17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	25	28
Market	45	26	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ajax v PSV Eindhoven19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	26	41
Market	36	23	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	74	26

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Willem II v Excelsior20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	26	47
Market	33	26	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Primeira Liga

Estrela v Famalicao15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	24	28	48
Market	33	31	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Alverca v SC Braga18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	22	29	49
Market	20	26	54

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	43	57
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Maritimo v Benfica18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	17	22	61
Market	9	15	76

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	66	34
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 15 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Sporting CP v Nacional20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	80	14	6
Market	80	12	8

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	71	29
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Erzurumspor FK v Konyaspor15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	29	38
Market	40	29	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Fenerbahçe v Beşiktaş18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	60	23	18
Market	52	24	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

How the calls did

✓FC Porto 2–1 MoreirenseFC Porto home win 79%

✓Paris Saint Germain 1–2 Monaco over 2.5 goals 71%

✓VfB Stuttgart 4–1 1. FC Köln over 2.5 goals 65%

✓Lyon 3–1 Auxerre over 2.5 goals 63%

✕Ipswich 0–2 Liverpool over 2.5 goals 63%

✓FC Porto 2–1 Moreirense over 2.5 goals 62%

✓Las Palmas 0–0 Leganes under 2.5 goals 56%

6 of 7 settled since yesterday · 123 of 181 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 6/10, we claimed 58% · 169/333 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 45% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 7/10, we claimed 60% · 198/333 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 56% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

60 rated · 3 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-09-05 08:37 UK