Football ratings

Sunday 6 September 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

73%Arsenal — home winArsenal v Chelsea · 16:30 · market 56% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

70%Heart Of Midlothian — home winHeart Of Midlothian v Dundee · 15:00 · market 64% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

67%Barcelona — away winValencia v Barcelona · 15:15 · market 74% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)

£10 on all 3 as one multiple returns about £33 if every one lands. The model puts that at 35%, the market at 26%, and the price needs 31% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

66%Everton v Manchester United — over 2.5 goals14:00 · market 58% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

64%Estac Troyes v Strasbourg — over 2.5 goals14:00 · market 55% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Groningen v Twente — over 2.5 goals11:15 · market 63% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Santa Clara v Rio Ave — under 2.5 goals15:30 · market 59% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

62%Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Augsburg — over 2.5 goals16:30 · market 65% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Marseille v Paris FC — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 58% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar — over 2.5 goals13:30 · market 66% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Alaves v Osasuna — under 2.5 goals17:30 · market 63% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

60%Heart Of Midlothian v Dundee — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 60% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Angers v Rennes — over 2.5 goals16:15 · market 56% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

58%Oviedo v Burgos — under 2.5 goals15:15 · market 65% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

55%Birmingham v Wolves — under 2.5 goals12:00 · market 54% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Everton v Manchester United14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	24	23	53
Market	29	26	45

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	66	34
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Arsenal v Chelsea16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	73	19	8
Market	56	25	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 18 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Championship

Birmingham v Wolves12:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	30	37
Market	32	29	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Valencia v Barcelona15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	12	21	67
Market	11	15	74

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Alaves v Osasuna17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	31	26
Market	42	31	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	39	61
Market	37	63

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Malaga v Levante17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	28	37
Market	40	29	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Espanyol v Sevilla20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	29	32
Market	42	30	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	39	61

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Serie A

Frosinone v Venezia14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	27	23
Market	35	27	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Parma v Monza14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	27	22
Market	36	33	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	40	60

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 15 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Bologna v Sassuolo17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	28	25
Market	47	28	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Juventus v AC Milan19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	26	24
Market	46	29	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 0514:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	27	44
Market	34	27	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Augsburg16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	26	28
Market	49	23	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ligue 1

Estac Troyes v Strasbourg14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	18	22	59
Market	33	27	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 20 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Angers v Rennes16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	22	24	54
Market	25	25	51

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Marseille v Paris FC19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	62	22	16
Market	52	24	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga 2

Eibar v Granada CF13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	29	28
Market	46	29	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	41	59

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Oviedo v Burgos15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	29	23
Market	49	30	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	35	65

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Castellón v Albacete17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	26	24
Market	61	23	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Almeria v Cadiz20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	54	27	19
Market	63	22	15

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Scottish Premiership

Heart Of Midlothian v Dundee15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	70	19	10
Market	64	21	15

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

ST Johnstone v Hibernian15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	28	43
Market	34	29	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

Groningen v Twente11:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	20	23	57
Market	29	25	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	20	24	56
Market	24	23	53

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Telstar v Cambuur13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	56	26	18
Market	58	21	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

ADO Den Haag v Fortuna Sittard15:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	28	31
Market	45	24	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Primeira Liga

Santa Clara v Rio Ave15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	52	29	18
Market	51	29	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	38	62
Market	41	59

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Guimaraes v Casa Pia18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	52	28	20
Market	63	23	14

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

GIL Vicente v Academico Viseu20:30

Not rated — Academico Viseu has 4 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Super Lig

Kasımpaşa v Amed15:00

Not rated — Amed has 3 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Çorum FK v Eyüpspor15:00

Not rated — Çorum FK has 3 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Kocaelispor v Samsunspor18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	29	29
Market	38	33	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Trabzonspor v Gençlerbirliği S.K.18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	66	21	12
Market	61	22	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✓Sporting CP 2–0 NacionalSporting CP home win 80%

✓Manchester City 1–0 CoventryManchester City home win 77%

✕FC Schalke 04 0–0 Bayern München over 2.5 goals 71%

✕Sporting CP 2–0 Nacional over 2.5 goals 71%

✕FC Schalke 04 0–0 Bayern MünchenBayern München away win 71%

✕Manchester City 1–0 Coventry over 2.5 goals 70%

✓Bayer Leverkusen 4–0 Union Berlin over 2.5 goals 69%

✓Werder Bremen 3–1 RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals 68%

✓Maritimo 0–3 Benfica over 2.5 goals 66%

✓Real Sociedad II 1–1 Tenerife under 2.5 goals 65%

✓ST Mirren 1–2 CelticCeltic away win 63%

✓Fenerbahçe 1–2 Beşiktaş over 2.5 goals 63%

✕Lens 0–1 Lorient over 2.5 goals 63%

✓West Ham 3–0 Derby over 2.5 goals 62%

✕Rangers 1–0 Motherwell over 2.5 goals 62%

✕Werder Bremen 3–1 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig away win 61%

✕SC Paderborn 07 0–1 SC Freiburg over 2.5 goals 61%

✓Maritimo 0–3 BenficaBenfica away win 61%

✓Peterborough 1–2 Sheffield Wednesday over 2.5 goals 61%

✓Ajax 1–3 PSV Eindhoven over 2.5 goals 60%

✕Stoke City 4–0 Charlton under 2.5 goals 58%

✓Sporting Gijon 0–2 Girona under 2.5 goals 57%

✕Alverca 1–2 SC Braga under 2.5 goals 57%

✕Burton Albion 2–2 Cambridge United under 2.5 goals 56%

13 of 24 settled since yesterday · 136 of 205 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 25/59, we claimed 49% · 194/392 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 37% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 30/59, we claimed 57% · 228/392 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 50% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

30 rated · 3 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-09-06 07:06 UK