Football ratings

Tuesday 8 September 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

Nothing clears the bar today. The thresholds are set where the model has historically been as good as it claims — home win 70%, away win 60% — and a quiet day is a real answer, not a gap.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

65%NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior — over 2.5 goals17:45 · market 67% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Utrecht v GO Ahead Eagles — over 2.5 goals13:00 · market 63% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

Every fixture

Championship

Blackburn v Sheffield Utd19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	28	24
Market	32	28	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 16 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Cardiff v Stoke City19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	26	24
Market	45	26	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Southampton v Swansea19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	25	21
Market	50	26	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Watford v Preston19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	28	29
Market	46	28	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Wrexham v Burnley19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	27	29
Market	47	26	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bolton v West Ham20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	21	25	53
Market	19	23	58

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

Utrecht v GO Ahead Eagles13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	25	28
Market	44	26	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	54	23	22
Market	59	23	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

UEFA Champions League

New competition — experimental. The model has never been trained or tested on it, these clubs are rated across leagues whose ratings have never been calibrated against each other, and the probabilities use a fallback calibration. Treat them as much weaker than the domestic ones.

AEK Athens FC v Lask Linz17:45

Not rated — Lask Linz has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Club Brugge KV v Aston Villa17:45

Not rated — Club Brugge KV has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	28	27
Market	53	23	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

FC Porto v Manchester City20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	28	29
Market	20	23	57

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 22 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Lille v Real Betis20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	29	29
Market	43	27	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Real Madrid v Inter20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	27	28
Market	60	21	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

How the calls did

No calls have been settled since yesterday.

0 of 0 settled since yesterday · 148 of 220 since the model went live.

Changed after we rated them

🕒Utrecht v GO Ahead Eaglesmoved to Tue 8 Sep · 13:00

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

12 rated · 2 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-09-08 07:05 UK