Football ratings
Friday 11 September 2026 · times UK
The model's strongest calls
85%AZ Alkmaar — home winAZ Alkmaar v Willem II · 19:00 · market 84% · this strong, 87% land (475 cases)
72%Beşiktaş — home winBeşiktaş v Erzurumspor FK · 18:00 · market 78% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)
£10 on all 2 as one multiple returns about £14 if every one lands. The model puts that at 62%, the market at 65%, and the price needs 71% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.
Goals — supporting, not headline
These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.
76%AZ Alkmaar v Willem II — over 2.5 goals19:00 · market 76% · this strong, 75% land (134 cases)
62%Rennes v Marseille — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 62% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)
62%Beşiktaş v Erzurumspor FK — over 2.5 goals18:00 · market 64% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)
57%Sevilla v Valencia — under 2.5 goals20:00 · market 59% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)
55%Burgos v AD Ceuta FC — under 2.5 goals19:30 · market 48% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)
Every fixture
Championship
West Ham v Wrexham20:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 62 | 23 | 15 |
| Market | 61 | 22 | 17 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 55 | 45 | |
| Market | 58 | 42 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway
La Liga
Sevilla v Valencia20:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 42 | 30 | 28 |
| Market | 46 | 30 | 24 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 43 | 57 | |
| Market | 41 | 59 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Serie A
Venezia v Fiorentina19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 34 | 29 | 37 |
| Market | 31 | 28 | 41 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 48 | 52 | |
| Market | 54 | 46 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Bundesliga
Union Berlin v FC Schalke 0419:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 56 | 26 | 18 |
| Market | 41 | 27 | 32 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 53 | 47 | |
| Market | 57 | 43 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 15 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Ligue 1
Rennes v Marseille19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 46 | 25 | 29 |
| Market | 46 | 24 | 29 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 62 | 38 | |
| Market | 62 | 38 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway
La Liga 2
Burgos v AD Ceuta FC19:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 53 | 27 | 20 |
| Market | 58 | 24 | 18 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 45 | 55 | |
| Market | 52 | 48 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar v Willem II19:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 85 | 10 | 4 |
| Market | 84 | 10 | 6 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 76 | 24 | |
| Market | 76 | 24 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 59% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Super Lig
Beşiktaş v Erzurumspor FK18:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 72 | 18 | 9 |
| Market | 78 | 15 | 8 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 62 | 38 | |
| Market | 64 | 36 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway
How the calls did
No calls have been settled since yesterday.
0 of 0 settled since yesterday · 158 of 233 since the model went live.
Every match, for the record
The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.
·Resulttop pick right 2/4, we claimed 48% · 228/457 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 36% on average
·Over/under 2.5top pick right 2/4, we claimed 54% · 265/457 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 51% on average
A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.