Football ratings

Saturday 12 September 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

79%Borussia Dortmund — home winBorussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07 · 14:30 · market 78% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

78%Real Madrid — home winReal Madrid v Rayo Vallecano · 20:00 · market 86% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

77%Twente — home winTwente v ADO Den Haag · 15:30 · market 73% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

65%Ajax — away winFortuna Sittard v Ajax · 19:00 · market 66% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)

62%NEC Nijmegen — away winCambuur v NEC Nijmegen · 20:00 · market 62% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

61%FC Porto — away winCasa Pia v FC Porto · 18:00 · market 76% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 6 as one multiple returns about £49 if every one lands. The model puts that at 12%, the market at 15%, and the price needs 20% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

69%FC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 67% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

68%Twente v ADO Den Haag — over 2.5 goals15:30 · market 71% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

66%Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07 — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 71% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

65%Cambuur v NEC Nijmegen — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 70% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

63%1899 Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 71% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Liverpool v Fulham — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 65% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 72% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Milton Keynes Dons v Peterborough — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 62% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Fortuna Sittard v Ajax — over 2.5 goals19:00 · market 69% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%GO Ahead Eagles v Groningen — over 2.5 goals17:45 · market 66% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Konyaspor v Trabzonspor — over 2.5 goals18:00 · market 56% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

58%Osasuna v Espanyol — under 2.5 goals15:15 · market 58% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

58%Notts County v Bradford — under 2.5 goals12:30 · market 56% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Nacional v Alverca — under 2.5 goals15:30 · market 52% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Alanyaspor v Göztepe — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 52% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Oxford United v Burton Albion — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 48% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	28	28
Market	42	28	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bournemouth v Brentford15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	27	30
Market	38	27	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Chelsea v Hull City15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	64	24	12
Market	77	15	7

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Crystal Palace v Ipswich15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	27	27
Market	51	25	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Liverpool v Fulham15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	57	23	20
Market	66	19	15

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Tottenham v Everton17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	28	36
Market	48	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Sunderland v Arsenal20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	23	28	49
Market	13	22	65

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 16 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Championship

Bolton v Cardiff12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	26	33
Market	36	26	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Derby v Birmingham12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	28	39
Market	25	29	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

West Brom v QPR12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	28	37
Market	44	28	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Blackburn v Millwall15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	28	41
Market	34	28	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Charlton v Portsmouth15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	28	33
Market	32	30	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Middlesbrough v Norwich15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	52	25	24
Market	52	23	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Preston v Lincoln15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	30	35
Market	41	28	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Southampton v Bristol City15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	63	23	14
Market	57	22	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Swansea v Burnley15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	27	23
Market	47	27	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Watford v Stoke City15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	29	32
Market	41	28	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

League One

Leyton Orient v Wycombe12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	29	38
Market	39	27	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Notts County v Bradford12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	30	24
Market	33	28	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

AFC Wimbledon v Doncaster15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	30	36
Market	36	27	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Blackpool v Bromley15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	27	20
Market	54	25	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Cambridge United v Reading15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	29	36
Market	36	28	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Mansfield Town v Huddersfield15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	24	26	51
Market	27	27	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Milton Keynes Dons v Peterborough15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	26	36
Market	49	24	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Oxford United v Burton Albion15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	29	23
Market	51	25	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Plymouth v Barnsley15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	27	23
Market	57	22	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Sheffield Wednesday v Wigan15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	25	20
Market	58	23	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Stockport County v Leicester15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	26	28
Market	51	24	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Racing Santander v Alaves13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	27	43
Market	39	27	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Osasuna v Espanyol15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	30	28
Market	43	29	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Athletic Club v Elche17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	27	24
Market	68	19	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 19 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	78	15	6
Market	86	10	4

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	72	28

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Serie A

Genoa v Frosinone14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	28	30
Market	44	29	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Lazio v AC Milan17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	29	31
Market	28	30	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	41	59

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Atalanta v Cagliari19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	26	28
Market	59	24	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	26	35
Market	42	24	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	71	29

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 0714:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	79	15	6
Market	78	13	9

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	66	34
Market	71	29

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	23	52
Market	24	23	53

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FSV Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	26	24
Market	50	24	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

SC Freiburg v Borussia Mönchengladbach14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	59	24	17
Market	57	23	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

1. FC Köln v Werder Bremen17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	27	29
Market	46	26	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ligue 1

Strasbourg v Monaco16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	26	38
Market	30	25	45

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Auxerre v Nice19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	29	40
Market	37	28	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Le Havre v Angers19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	28	29
Market	36	30	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Lorient v Toulouse19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	29	30
Market	37	29	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Paris FC v Lyon19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	28	38
Market	37	26	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

FC Andorra v Real Sociedad II13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	52	26	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Cadiz v Las Palmas15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	27	27	46
Market	34	29	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Girona v Castellón17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	28	25
Market	43	29	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Granada CF v Albacete17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	28	26
Market	45	30	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Cordoba v Almeria20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	27	37
Market	39	27	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

Twente v ADO Den Haag15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	77	15	8
Market	73	15	12

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	68	32
Market	71	29

Under 4.5 goals: 71% · happens 86% of the time anyway

GO Ahead Eagles v Groningen17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	26	31
Market	41	25	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Fortuna Sittard v Ajax19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	14	21	65
Market	15	19	66

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Cambuur v NEC Nijmegen20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	17	21	62
Market	18	20	62

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Primeira Liga

Nacional v Alverca15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	30	34
Market	36	30	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Casa Pia v FC Porto18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	15	24	61
Market	8	16	76

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 15 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Academico Viseu v Guimaraes20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	27	44
Market	25	28	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Eyüpspor v Rizespor15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	29	40
Market	23	26	51

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Samsunspor v Çorum FK15:00

Not rated — Çorum FK has 4 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Alanyaspor v Göztepe18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	29	23
Market	44	28	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Konyaspor v Trabzonspor18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	20	24	57
Market	27	25	48

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

How the calls did

✕AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Willem IIAZ Alkmaar home win 85%

✕AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Willem II over 2.5 goals 76%

✓Beşiktaş 3–0 Erzurumspor FKBeşiktaş home win 72%

✕Rennes 1–0 Marseille over 2.5 goals 62%

✓Beşiktaş 3–0 Erzurumspor FK over 2.5 goals 62%

✓Sevilla 1–0 Valencia under 2.5 goals 57%

✕Burgos 3–1 AD Ceuta FC under 2.5 goals 55%

3 of 7 settled since yesterday · 161 of 240 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 6/8, we claimed 57% · 234/465 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 43% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 4/8, we claimed 59% · 269/465 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 48% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

61 rated · 1 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-09-12 07:10 UK