Football ratings

Sunday 13 September 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

83%PSV Eindhoven — home winPSV Eindhoven v Sparta Rotterdam · 19:00 · market 81% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)

82%Galatasaray — home winGalatasaray v Kocaelispor · 18:00 · market 75% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)

79%Benfica — home winBenfica v GIL Vicente · 18:00 · market 83% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

76%Lille — home winLille v Estac Troyes · 14:00 · market 68% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

76%RB Leipzig — home winRB Leipzig v Hamburger SV · 14:30 · market 71% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

73%Feyenoord — away winPEC Zwolle v Feyenoord · 15:45 · market 66% · this strong, 74% land (779 cases)

63%Barcelona — away winLevante v Barcelona · 15:15 · market 84% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 7 as one multiple returns about £57 if every one lands. The model puts that at 15%, the market at 13%, and the price needs 18% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

78%PSV Eindhoven v Sparta Rotterdam — over 2.5 goals19:00 · market 80% · this strong, 75% land (134 cases)

75%Benfica v GIL Vicente — over 2.5 goals18:00 · market 64% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

71%Galatasaray v Kocaelispor — over 2.5 goals18:00 · market 62% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

71%RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 69% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

66%PEC Zwolle v Feyenoord — over 2.5 goals15:45 · market 69% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

64%Manchester United v Manchester City — over 2.5 goals16:30 · market 63% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

64%Tenerife v Leganes — under 2.5 goals20:00 · market 63% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

63%Lille v Estac Troyes — over 2.5 goals14:00 · market 56% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Getafe v Deportivo La Coruna — under 2.5 goals17:30 · market 70% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

60%Stade Brestois 29 v Paris Saint Germain — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 69% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

58%Valladolid v Oviedo — under 2.5 goals15:15 · market 65% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

58%Celta Vigo v Malaga — under 2.5 goals13:00 · market 55% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Mallorca v Sabadell — under 2.5 goals17:30 · market 54% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Kasımpaşa — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 56% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Sporting Gijon v Eldense — under 2.5 goals13:00 · market 56% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Coventry v Brighton14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	24	27	49
Market	25	26	50

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Manchester United v Manchester City16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	24	50
Market	30	25	45

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Championship

Sheffield Utd v Wolves12:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	24	25	51
Market	25	26	48

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Celta Vigo v Malaga13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	30	27
Market	56	26	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Levante v Barcelona15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	15	22	63
Market	6	10	84

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	72	28

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 20 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Getafe v Deportivo La Coruna17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	31	30
Market	39	34	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	40	60
Market	30	70

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	26	47
Market	32	27	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Serie A

Lecce v Monza14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	28	24
Market	34	32	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	40	60

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Napoli v Bologna17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	27	22
Market	52	27	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sassuolo v Juventus19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	18	23	60
Market	18	24	58

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	76	16	8
Market	71	17	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	71	29
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 71% · happens 86% of the time anyway

SV Elversberg v Bayern München16:30

Not rated — SV Elversberg has 4 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Ligue 1

Lille v Estac Troyes14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	76	17	7
Market	68	20	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Le Mans v Lens16:15

Not rated — Le Mans has 3 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Stade Brestois 29 v Paris Saint Germain19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	25	47
Market	9	14	77

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 31 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga 2

Sporting Gijon v Eldense13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	28	21
Market	56	26	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Valladolid v Oviedo15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	30	42
Market	38	32	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	35	65

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Mallorca v Sabadell17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	57	27	16
Market	54	26	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Tenerife v Leganes20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	32	30
Market	38	32	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	36	64
Market	37	63

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

Excelsior v Utrecht11:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	28	36
Market	43	25	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Heerenveen v Telstar13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	58	24	18
Market	58	21	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

PEC Zwolle v Feyenoord15:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	10	17	73
Market	15	19	66

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	66	34
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

PSV Eindhoven v Sparta Rotterdam19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	83	11	6
Market	81	11	8

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	78	22
Market	80	20

Under 4.5 goals: 56% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Primeira Liga

Arouca v Santa Clara18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	29	34
Market	36	33	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	40	60

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Benfica v GIL Vicente18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	79	14	7
Market	83	12	5

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	75	25
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 69% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Famalicao v Sporting CP20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	16	25	59
Market	17	21	63

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Kasımpaşa15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	30	30
Market	40	30	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Amed v Başakşehir18:00

Not rated — Amed has 4 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Galatasaray v Kocaelispor18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	82	13	5
Market	75	16	9

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	71	29
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 70% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

How the calls did

✓Borussia Dortmund 3–0 SC Paderborn 07Borussia Dortmund home win 79%

✓Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid home win 78%

✓Twente 2–0 ADO Den HaagTwente home win 77%

✓FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen over 2.5 goals 69%

✕Twente 2–0 ADO Den Haag over 2.5 goals 68%

✓Borussia Dortmund 3–0 SC Paderborn 07 over 2.5 goals 66%

✓Cambuur 3–0 NEC Nijmegen over 2.5 goals 65%

✓Fortuna Sittard 1–5 AjaxAjax away win 65%

✓1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB Stuttgart over 2.5 goals 63%

✕Liverpool 0–0 Fulham over 2.5 goals 63%

✕Cambuur 3–0 NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen away win 62%

✓Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano over 2.5 goals 62%

✕Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Peterborough over 2.5 goals 61%

✓Casa Pia 1–4 FC PortoFC Porto away win 61%

✓Fortuna Sittard 1–5 Ajax over 2.5 goals 60%

✕GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 Groningen over 2.5 goals 60%

✕Konyaspor 1–0 Trabzonspor over 2.5 goals 60%

✓Osasuna 0–2 Espanyol under 2.5 goals 58%

✓Notts County 0–1 Bradford under 2.5 goals 58%

✕Nacional 1–3 Alverca under 2.5 goals 56%

✕Alanyaspor 2–2 Göztepe under 2.5 goals 56%

✕Oxford United 3–0 Burton Albion under 2.5 goals 56%

13 of 22 settled since yesterday · 174 of 262 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 19/61, we claimed 47% · 253/526 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 35% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 35/61, we claimed 56% · 305/526 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 51% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

26 rated · 3 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-09-13 07:07 UK