Football ratings
Monday 14 September 2026 · times UK
The model's strongest calls
78%Inter — home winInter v Udinese · 19:45 · market 77% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)
76%Como — home winComo v Parma · 17:30 · market 79% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)
68%AS Roma — away winTorino v AS Roma · 17:30 · market 62% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)
66%Fenerbahçe — away winGaziantep FK v Fenerbahçe · 18:00 · market 61% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)
£10 on all 4 as one multiple returns about £36 if every one lands. The model puts that at 27%, the market at 23%, and the price needs 28% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.
Goals — supporting, not headline
These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.
65%Gaziantep FK v Fenerbahçe — over 2.5 goals18:00 · market 55% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)
65%Inter v Udinese — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 64% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)
57%Moreirense v Maritimo — under 2.5 goals20:15 · market 59% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)
Every fixture
Premier League
Leeds v Newcastle20:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 46 | 27 | 27 |
| Market | 42 | 27 | 31 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 57 | 43 | |
| Market | 53 | 47 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway
La Liga
Villarreal v Real Betis20:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 47 | 26 | 27 |
| Market | 50 | 25 | 26 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 54 | 46 | |
| Market | 61 | 39 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Serie A
Como v Parma17:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 76 | 17 | 7 |
| Market | 79 | 14 | 7 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 58 | 42 | |
| Market | 58 | 42 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Torino v AS Roma17:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 11 | 21 | 68 |
| Market | 16 | 22 | 62 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 54 | 46 | |
| Market | 54 | 46 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 6 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Inter v Udinese19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 78 | 15 | 7 |
| Market | 77 | 15 | 8 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 65 | 35 | |
| Market | 64 | 36 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 70% · happens 86% of the time anyway
La Liga 2
Celta de Vigo II v Eibar19:30
Not rated — Celta de Vigo II has 4 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.
Primeira Liga
Rio Ave v Estrela18:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 37 | 29 | 34 |
| Market | 35 | 29 | 35 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 49 | 51 | |
| Market | 45 | 55 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Moreirense v Maritimo20:15
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 40 | 30 | 30 |
| Market | 38 | 30 | 32 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 43 | 57 | |
| Market | 41 | 59 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway
SC Braga v Estoril20:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 63 | 24 | 12 |
| Market | 67 | 20 | 13 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 48 | 52 | |
| Market | 55 | 45 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Super Lig
Gaziantep FK v Fenerbahçe18:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 14 | 20 | 66 |
| Market | 16 | 22 | 61 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 65 | 35 | |
| Market | 55 | 45 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway
How the calls did
✓PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Sparta RotterdamPSV Eindhoven home win 83%
✓Galatasaray 1–0 KocaelisporGalatasaray home win 82%
✓Benfica 3–1 GIL VicenteBenfica home win 79%
✓PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Sparta Rotterdam over 2.5 goals 78%
✓Lille 2–0 Estac TroyesLille home win 76%
✓RB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburger SVRB Leipzig home win 76%
✓Benfica 3–1 GIL Vicente over 2.5 goals 75%
✓PEC Zwolle 0–7 FeyenoordFeyenoord away win 73%
✕Galatasaray 1–0 Kocaelispor over 2.5 goals 71%
✓RB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburger SV over 2.5 goals 71%
✓PEC Zwolle 0–7 Feyenoord over 2.5 goals 66%
✕Manchester United 0–1 Manchester City over 2.5 goals 64%
✓Tenerife 2–0 Leganes under 2.5 goals 64%
✓Levante 2–4 BarcelonaBarcelona away win 63%
✕Lille 2–0 Estac Troyes over 2.5 goals 63%
✓Getafe 1–1 Deportivo La Coruna under 2.5 goals 60%
✕Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 goals 60%
✕Valladolid 0–3 Oviedo under 2.5 goals 58%
✓Celta Vigo 1–1 Malaga under 2.5 goals 58%
✓Mallorca 2–0 Sabadell under 2.5 goals 56%
✕Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 Kasımpaşa under 2.5 goals 56%
✓Sporting Gijon 0–1 Eldense under 2.5 goals 56%
16 of 22 settled since yesterday · 190 of 284 since the model went live.
Every match, for the record
The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.
·Resulttop pick right 17/26, we claimed 55% · 270/552 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 49% on average
·Over/under 2.5top pick right 15/26, we claimed 59% · 320/552 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 53% on average
A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.