Football ratings

Thursday 17 September 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

Nothing clears the bar today. The thresholds are set where the model has historically been as good as it claims — home win 70%, away win 60% — and a quiet day is a real answer, not a gap.

Every fixture

League One
AFC Wimbledon v Milton Keynes Dons20:00
HomeDrawAway
Model352838
Market332740
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model5545
Market5248
Under 4.5 goals: 85%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
La Liga
Real Betis v Getafe18:00
HomeDrawAway
Model592515
Market572617
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model4654
Market4456
Under 4.5 goals: 89%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
Malaga v Villarreal20:30
HomeDrawAway
Model262847
Market272449
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model4852
Market5941
Under 4.5 goals: 87%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✓Barcelona 7–2 Racing SantanderBarcelona home win 86%
✓Barcelona 7–2 Racing Santander over 2.5 goals 78%
✓Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 Sevilla under 2.5 goals 58%

3 of 3 settled since yesterday · 202 of 300 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 2/3, we claimed 62% · 281/573 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 60% on average
·Over/under 2.5top pick right 3/3, we claimed 63% · 336/573 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 63% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

3 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-09-17 07:05 UK