Football ratings

Saturday 19 September 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

81%Sporting CP — home winSporting CP v Arouca · 20:30 · market 78% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)

76%Ajax — home winAjax v Excelsior · 19:00 · market 79% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

£10 on all 2 as one multiple returns about £15 if every one lands. The model puts that at 62%, the market at 62%, and the price needs 68% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

71%Sporting CP v Arouca — over 2.5 goals20:30 · market 67% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

69%Ajax v Excelsior — over 2.5 goals19:00 · market 77% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

66%Werder Bremen v FC Augsburg — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 68% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

65%Kilmarnock v Heart Of Midlothian — over 2.5 goals17:45 · market 62% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

64%Hamburger SV v 1. FC Köln — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 60% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

64%Alverca v Rio Ave — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 52% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

63%Borussia Mönchengladbach v FSV Mainz 05 — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 64% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Trabzonspor v Galatasaray — over 2.5 goals18:00 · market 66% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Eldense v Eibar — under 2.5 goals17:30 · market 56% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

61%Lyon v Rennes — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 61% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

58%Kocaelispor v Gaziantep FK — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 60% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

58%Leyton Orient v Stevenage — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 57% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Real Sociedad II v Mallorca — under 2.5 goals13:00 · market 50% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Tottenham v Aston Villa12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	29	35
Market	47	27	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Brighton v Arsenal15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	29	40
Market	20	24	56

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 17 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Everton v Ipswich15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	26	22
Market	53	25	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Newcastle v Hull City15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	27	23
Market	60	22	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Nottingham Forest v Coventry17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	26	20
Market	58	24	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Championship

Cardiff v Charlton12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	26	23
Market	54	23	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Millwall v West Ham12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	27	46
Market	22	25	53

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Stoke City v Sheffield Utd12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	27	22
Market	41	28	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Birmingham v Middlesbrough15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	27	39
Market	34	27	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Burnley v Derby15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	27	24
Market	54	25	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Lincoln v Swansea15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	30	35
Market	33	28	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Portsmouth v Blackburn15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	28	44
Market	44	28	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 16 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

QPR v Preston15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	25	21
Market	55	24	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Wrexham v Southampton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	27	43
Market	32	27	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

League One

Barnsley v Leicester12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	27	28	45
Market	30	25	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Burton Albion v Mansfield Town12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	29	30
Market	39	28	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Blackpool v Plymouth15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	28	30
Market	36	25	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bromley v Huddersfield15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	17	23	59
Market	18	23	60

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Leyton Orient v Stevenage15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	31	35
Market	39	29	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Luton v Bradford15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	28	23
Market	45	26	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Oxford United v Cambridge United15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	58	25	17
Market	45	27	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Peterborough v Doncaster15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	28	33
Market	37	26	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Reading v Notts County15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	54	25	21
Market	52	26	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sheffield Wednesday v Stockport County15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	27	35
Market	34	24	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Wigan v Wycombe15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	28	32
Market	39	27	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	29	36
Market	38	29	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Athletic Club v Alaves15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	27	24
Market	58	24	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Celta Vigo v Racing Santander17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	28	32
Market	53	23	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Sevilla v Barcelona20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	17	24	59
Market	7	14	79

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	72	28

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 20 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Serie A

Bologna v Torino14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	28	21
Market	49	27	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Udinese v Cagliari14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	27	43
Market	43	30	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 15 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

AS Roma v Inter17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	28	35
Market	36	28	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Venezia v Lazio19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	25	50
Market	25	26	49

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

Borussia Mönchengladbach v FSV Mainz 0514:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	25	50
Market	32	25	43

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Eintracht Frankfurt v SC Freiburg14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	27	42
Market	40	24	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Hamburger SV v 1. FC Köln14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	25	42
Market	35	26	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Werder Bremen v FC Augsburg14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	25	39
Market	40	25	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	66	34
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	27	45
Market	39	26	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ligue 1

Paris FC v Strasbourg16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	27	27
Market	48	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Angers v Estac Troyes19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	28	23
Market	45	28	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Le Mans v Lorient19:45

Not rated — Le Mans has 4 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Lyon v Rennes19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	25	29
Market	46	25	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Toulouse v Le Havre19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	29	26
Market	56	24	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga 2

Real Sociedad II v Mallorca13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	24	29	47
Market	24	26	51

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FC Andorra v Sporting Gijon15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	27	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Castellón v Tenerife17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	54	27	19
Market	61	22	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Eldense v Eibar17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	32	34
Market	31	31	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	38	62
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Cadiz v Girona20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	22	27	51
Market	25	27	48

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Scottish Premiership

Dundee v Motherwell15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	24	26	49
Market	31	28	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Hibernian v Aberdeen15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	27	24
Market	55	24	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

ST Johnstone v Falkirk15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	29	30
Market	47	27	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

ST Mirren v Dundee Utd15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	26	30
Market	40	26	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Kilmarnock v Heart Of Midlothian17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	19	22	59
Market	19	22	58

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

ADO Den Haag v Cambuur15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	26	33
Market	51	24	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Sparta Rotterdam v Heerenveen17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	26	38
Market	38	25	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ajax v Excelsior19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	76	16	8
Market	79	12	8

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	77	23

Under 4.5 goals: 69% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Willem II v Fortuna Sittard20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	27	41
Market	36	25	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Primeira Liga

GIL Vicente v Maritimo15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	27	21
Market	50	28	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	41	59

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Nacional v Famalicao15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	22	27	52
Market	25	29	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Alverca v Rio Ave18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	32	26
Market	49	28	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	36	64
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Sporting CP v Arouca20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	81	13	5
Market	78	13	9

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	71	29
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Kocaelispor v Gaziantep FK15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	31	31
Market	42	31	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	40	60

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Çorum FK v Alanyaspor15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	28	27
Market	45	28	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Başakşehir v Gençlerbirliği S.K.18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	62	22	15
Market	62	21	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Trabzonspor v Galatasaray18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	22	24	54
Market	33	25	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

How the calls did

✓Bayern München 7–0 Union BerlinBayern München home win 86%

✓Bayern München 7–0 Union Berlin over 2.5 goals 80%

✓Monaco 2–1 Lens over 2.5 goals 62%

✕Espanyol 1–3 Elche under 2.5 goals 56%

3 of 4 settled since yesterday · 205 of 304 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 5/9, we claimed 50% · 288/585 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 44% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 5/9, we claimed 58% · 341/585 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 56% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

64 rated · 1 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-09-19 07:12 UK