Football ratings

Sunday 20 September 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

77%Fenerbahçe — home winFenerbahçe v Eyüpspor · 15:00 · market 82% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

75%AZ Alkmaar — home winAZ Alkmaar v Telstar · 13:30 · market 77% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

75%Feyenoord — home winFeyenoord v Utrecht · 11:15 · market 76% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

66%Como — away winFrosinone v Como · 14:00 · market 64% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)

£10 on all 4 as one multiple returns about £27 if every one lands. The model puts that at 28%, the market at 31%, and the price needs 36% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

73%Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 70% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

71%Fenerbahçe v Eyüpspor — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 67% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

69%AZ Alkmaar v Telstar — over 2.5 goals13:30 · market 74% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

67%Getafe v Malaga — under 2.5 goals13:00 · market 67% · this strong, 55% land (156 cases)

65%FC Schalke 04 v SV Elversberg — over 2.5 goals16:30 · market 63% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

65%Feyenoord v Utrecht — over 2.5 goals11:15 · market 75% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

64%Fulham v Manchester United — over 2.5 goals16:30 · market 61% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Manchester City v Sunderland — over 2.5 goals14:00 · market 60% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Celtic v Rangers — over 2.5 goals12:00 · market 63% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Villarreal v Levante — over 2.5 goals17:30 · market 65% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%SC Paderborn 07 v 1899 Hoffenheim — over 2.5 goals18:30 · market 66% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Erzurumspor FK v Samsunspor — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 46% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Twente v PSV Eindhoven — over 2.5 goals13:30 · market 74% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Leganes v Granada CF — under 2.5 goals20:00 · market 60% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

58%AD Ceuta FC v Valladolid — under 2.5 goals15:15 · market 53% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

58%Sabadell v Oviedo — under 2.5 goals13:00 · market 66% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

58%Parma v Genoa — under 2.5 goals14:00 · market 62% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Santa Clara v SC Braga — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 62% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Estoril v Casa Pia — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 49% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Bournemouth v Liverpool14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	27	37
Market	30	25	45

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Leeds v Crystal Palace14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	26	19
Market	57	24	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Manchester City v Sunderland14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	69	19	11
Market	72	17	11

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Fulham v Manchester United16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	24	49
Market	27	25	48

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Championship

Wolves v West Brom12:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	57	25	18
Market	51	26	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Norwich v Bolton13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	26	24
Market	65	20	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga

Getafe v Malaga13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	33	26
Market	47	31	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	33	67
Market	33	67

Under 4.5 goals: 95% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	26	42
Market	27	25	48

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Deportivo La Coruna v Real Betis17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	23	26	50
Market	27	26	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Villarreal v Levante17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	64	21	15
Market	64	20	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Valencia v Real Sociedad20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	28	26
Market	35	28	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Serie A

Fiorentina v Napoli11:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	27	42
Market	30	28	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Frosinone v Como14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	13	21	66
Market	14	21	64

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Parma v Genoa14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	31	32
Market	30	32	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	38	62

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Juventus v Atalanta17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	56	25	19
Market	56	25	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

AC Milan v Lecce19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	67	22	11
Market	76	16	8

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	52	22	26
Market	48	23	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	73	27
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 68% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FC Schalke 04 v SV Elversberg16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	25	32
Market	47	27	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

SC Paderborn 07 v 1899 Hoffenheim18:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	21	24	55
Market	21	22	57

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ligue 1

Auxerre v Stade Brestois 2914:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	27	41
Market	33	27	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Nice v Lille16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	30	36
Market	26	27	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Marseille v Paris Saint Germain19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	27	41
Market	13	17	70

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 28 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga 2

Sabadell v Oviedo13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	30	37
Market	40	33	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	34	66

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

AD Ceuta FC v Valladolid15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	30	31
Market	34	28	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Almeria v Celta de Vigo II17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	62	23	15
Market	68	19	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Las Palmas v Burgos17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	28	25
Market	46	31	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Leganes v Granada CF20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	31	34
Market	46	30	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	40	60
Market	40	60

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Scottish Premiership

Celtic v Rangers12:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	56	23	21
Market	43	26	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Eredivisie

Feyenoord v Utrecht11:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	75	17	8
Market	76	14	10

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	75	25

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

AZ Alkmaar v Telstar13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	75	16	9
Market	77	13	9

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	74	26

Under 4.5 goals: 70% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Twente v PSV Eindhoven13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	26	41
Market	32	23	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	74	26

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

NEC Nijmegen v GO Ahead Eagles15:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	26	32
Market	50	23	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	71	29

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Primeira Liga

Estrela v Academico Viseu15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	27	27
Market	44	29	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Guimaraes v Moreirense15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	60	23	17
Market	63	23	14

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Estoril v Casa Pia18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	29	23
Market	55	25	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Santa Clara v SC Braga18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	30	42
Market	25	30	45

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	38	62

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FC Porto v Benfica20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	29	33
Market	34	28	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Erzurumspor FK v Samsunspor15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	26	45
Market	36	30	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Fenerbahçe v Eyüpspor15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	77	15	8
Market	82	12	6

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	71	29
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 69% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Amed v Beşiktaş18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	28	46
Market	22	24	54

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Göztepe v Rizespor18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	27	39
Market	40	29	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

How the calls did

✕Sporting CP 2–2 AroucaSporting CP home win 81%

✕Ajax 2–2 ExcelsiorAjax home win 76%

✓Sporting CP 2–2 Arouca over 2.5 goals 71%

✓Ajax 2–2 Excelsior over 2.5 goals 69%

✓Werder Bremen 3–2 FC Augsburg over 2.5 goals 66%

✕Kilmarnock 1–1 Heart Of Midlothian over 2.5 goals 65%

✓Hamburger SV 2–1 1. FC Köln over 2.5 goals 64%

✓Alverca 1–0 Rio Ave under 2.5 goals 64%

✓Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 FSV Mainz 05 over 2.5 goals 63%

✓Trabzonspor 4–0 Galatasaray over 2.5 goals 63%

✕Eldense 1–2 Eibar under 2.5 goals 62%

✓Lyon 4–0 Rennes over 2.5 goals 61%

✓Kocaelispor 2–0 Gaziantep FK under 2.5 goals 58%

✓Leyton Orient 1–0 Stevenage under 2.5 goals 58%

✓Real Sociedad II 0–1 Mallorca under 2.5 goals 56%

11 of 15 settled since yesterday · 216 of 319 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 24/64, we claimed 47% · 312/649 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 35% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 38/64, we claimed 56% · 379/649 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 52% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

41 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-09-20 07:10 UK