Football ratings
Saturday 26 September 2026 · times UK
The model's strongest calls
Nothing clears the bar today. The thresholds are set where the model has historically been as good as it claims — home win 70%, away win 60% — and a quiet day is a real answer, not a gap.
Goals — supporting, not headline
These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.
63%Stockport County v Peterborough — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 70% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)
60%Tenerife v Cadiz — under 2.5 goals17:30 · market 61% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)
57%Celta de Vigo II v Sabadell — under 2.5 goals17:30 · market 54% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)
Every fixture
League One
Cambridge United v AFC Wimbledon15:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 44 | 30 | 26 |
| Market | 52 | 26 | 22 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 45 | 55 | |
| Market | 47 | 53 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Plymouth v Burton Albion15:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 56 | 25 | 19 |
| Market | 62 | 21 | 16 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 54 | 46 | |
| Market | 58 | 42 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Stockport County v Peterborough15:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 56 | 24 | 21 |
| Market | 72 | 16 | 12 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 63 | 37 | |
| Market | 70 | 30 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 16 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Wycombe v Reading15:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 40 | 29 | 30 |
| Market | 36 | 26 | 37 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 48 | 52 | |
| Market | 57 | 43 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway
La Liga 2
AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad II13:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 39 | 28 | 34 |
| Market | 38 | 27 | 35 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 52 | 48 | |
| Market | 53 | 47 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Granada CF v FC Andorra15:15
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 55 | 45 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway
No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.
Celta de Vigo II v Sabadell17:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 39 | 30 | 31 |
| Market | 30 | 29 | 42 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 43 | 57 | |
| Market | 46 | 54 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Tenerife v Cadiz17:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 55 | 28 | 17 |
| Market | 51 | 29 | 20 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 40 | 60 | |
| Market | 39 | 61 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway
How the calls did
No calls have been settled since yesterday.
0 of 0 settled since yesterday · 228 of 342 since the model went live.
Every match, for the record
The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.
·Resulttop pick right 1/1, we claimed 55% · 329/691 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 55% on average
·Over/under 2.5top pick right 1/1, we claimed 50% · 395/691 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 50% on average
A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.