Football ratings

Sunday 27 September 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

Nothing clears the bar today. The thresholds are set where the model has historically been as good as it claims — home win 70%, away win 60% — and a quiet day is a real answer, not a gap.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

64%Eibar v Las Palmas — under 2.5 goals17:30 · market 50% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)
58%Mallorca v Almeria — under 2.5 goals15:15 · market 50% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

La Liga 2
Valladolid v Cordoba13:00
HomeDrawAway
Model312841
Market402832
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model5050
Market5347
Under 4.5 goals: 86%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Mallorca v Almeria15:15
HomeDrawAway
Model502921
Market463025
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model4258
Market5050
Under 4.5 goals: 91%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
Burgos v Eldense17:30
HomeDrawAway
Model552718
Market492923
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model4654
Market4456
Under 4.5 goals: 89%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 6 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Eibar v Las Palmas17:30
HomeDrawAway
Model393229
Market502921
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model3664
Market5050
Under 4.5 goals: 93%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Oviedo v Sporting Gijon20:00
HomeDrawAway
Model452926
Market473023
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model4555
Market3862
Under 4.5 goals: 89%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✕Stockport County 1–0 Peterborough over 2.5 goals 63%
✓Tenerife 1–1 Cadiz under 2.5 goals 60%
✓Celta de Vigo II 1–1 Sabadell under 2.5 goals 57%

2 of 3 settled since yesterday · 230 of 345 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 2/8, we claimed 46% · 331/699 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 33% on average
·Over/under 2.5top pick right 5/8, we claimed 56% · 399/699 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 51% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

5 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-09-27 07:06 UK