Football ratings
Saturday 3 October 2026 · times UK
The model's strongest calls
Nothing clears the bar today. The thresholds are set where the model has historically been as good as it claims — home win 70%, away win 60% — and a quiet day is a real answer, not a gap.
Goals — supporting, not headline
These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.
61%Albacete v Eibar — under 2.5 goals13:00 · market 50% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)
56%Almeria v Burgos — under 2.5 goals15:15 · market 51% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)
Every fixture
League One
Burton Albion v Huddersfield15:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 26 | 28 | 47 |
| Market | 26 | 25 | 50 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 52 | 48 | |
| Market | 52 | 48 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Leyton Orient v Plymouth15:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 30 | 28 | 42 |
| Market | 26 | 25 | 48 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 52 | 48 | |
| Market | 58 | 42 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 6 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Reading v Bradford15:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 54 | 27 | 19 |
| Market | 45 | 28 | 28 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 50 | 50 | |
| Market | 49 | 51 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 10 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
La Liga 2
Albacete v Eibar13:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 36 | 31 | 33 |
| Market | 33 | 28 | 39 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 39 | 61 | |
| Market | 50 | 50 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Almeria v Burgos15:15
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 47 | 29 | 24 |
| Market | 60 | 24 | 16 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 44 | 56 | |
| Market | 49 | 51 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 13 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Cadiz v Leganes17:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 29 | 29 | 42 |
| Market | 32 | 31 | 37 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 47 | 53 | |
| Market | 41 | 59 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Sabadell v FC Andorra17:30
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 47 | 53 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway
No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.
How the calls did
✕Eldense 4–1 Oviedo under 2.5 goals 58%
0 of 1 settled since yesterday · 232 of 349 since the model went live.
Every match, for the record
The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.
·Resulttop pick right 0/1, we claimed 39% · 335/706 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 30% on average
·Over/under 2.5top pick right 0/1, we claimed 58% · 404/706 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 42% on average
A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.