Football ratings

Saturday 10 October 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

86%Barcelona — home winBarcelona v Getafe · 17:30 · market 89% · this strong, 87% land (475 cases)

83%Inter — home winInter v Parma · 17:00 · market 85% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)

83%Paris Saint Germain — home winParis Saint Germain v Le Mans · 19:45 · market 87% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)

74%Twente — away winFortuna Sittard v Twente · 19:00 · market 66% · this strong, 74% land (779 cases)

73%Ajax — home winAjax v NEC Nijmegen · 20:00 · market 73% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

73%Arsenal — home winArsenal v Leeds · 12:30 · market 68% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

72%Rangers — home winRangers v Kilmarnock · 15:00 · market 83% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

71%Bayern München — away winFC Augsburg v Bayern München · 14:30 · market 82% · this strong, 74% land (779 cases)

69%Fenerbahçe — away winRizespor v Fenerbahçe · 17:00 · market 56% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)

67%FC Porto — away winMaritimo v FC Porto · 18:00 · market 72% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)

£10 on all 10 as one multiple returns about £102 if every one lands. The model puts that at 5%, the market at 6%, and the price needs 10% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

75%FC Augsburg v Bayern München — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 83% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

74%Rizespor v Fenerbahçe — over 2.5 goals17:00 · market 57% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

71%Barcelona v Getafe — over 2.5 goals17:30 · market 75% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

70%RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt — over 2.5 goals17:30 · market 75% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

70%Fortuna Sittard v Twente — over 2.5 goals19:00 · market 69% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

68%Ajax v NEC Nijmegen — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 74% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

68%Inter v Parma — over 2.5 goals17:00 · market 71% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

67%Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 76% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

66%SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 71% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

66%Heart Of Midlothian v ST Mirren — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 64% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

64%Real Madrid v Villarreal — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 75% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 66% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Manchester United v Tottenham — over 2.5 goals17:30 · market 64% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 68% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%AD Ceuta FC v Sabadell — under 2.5 goals15:15 · market 55% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

62%GO Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam — over 2.5 goals15:30 · market 69% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Leicester v Peterborough — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 71% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Rangers v Kilmarnock — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 73% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Dundee Utd v Hibernian — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 58% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Ipswich v Fulham — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 55% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Maritimo v FC Porto — over 2.5 goals18:00 · market 51% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

58%Bradford v Leyton Orient — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 48% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

58%Stevenage v Wigan — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 58% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

57%Casa Pia v Santa Clara — under 2.5 goals15:30 · market 59% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Amed — under 2.5 goals11:30 · market 47% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Lorient v Paris FC — under 2.5 goals19:45 · market 52% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Alanyaspor v Erzurumspor FK — under 2.5 goals14:00 · market 56% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

55%West Brom v Birmingham — under 2.5 goals12:30 · market 53% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Arsenal v Leeds12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	73	19	9
Market	68	20	12

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Aston Villa v Brentford15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	28	35
Market	35	27	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Chelsea v Bournemouth15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	28	31
Market	56	23	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 15 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ipswich v Fulham15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	27	25	48
Market	35	27	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Sunderland v Brighton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	27	43
Market	32	28	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Manchester United v Tottenham17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	58	23	19
Market	55	22	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Championship

Charlton v Bristol City12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	28	44
Market	30	29	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Swansea v Norwich12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	28	26
Market	43	27	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

West Brom v Birmingham12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	30	40
Market	38	29	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Blackburn v Cardiff15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	26	41
Market	34	26	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bolton v Stoke City15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	28	38
Market	34	29	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Derby v Wrexham15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	29	35
Market	32	28	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Middlesbrough v Wolves15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	27	39
Market	44	26	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Preston v Millwall15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	29	41
Market	33	27	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sheffield Utd v Lincoln15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	29	42
Market	42	28	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Watford v Burnley15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	26	49
Market	34	27	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

League One

Notts County v Oxford United12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	28	47
Market	38	27	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Plymouth v AFC Wimbledon12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	65	22	13
Market	65	20	15

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bradford v Leyton Orient15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	30	21
Market	57	24	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Cambridge United v Blackpool15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	29	27
Market	48	25	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Doncaster v Burton Albion15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	28	33
Market	56	22	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 17 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Huddersfield v Sheffield Wednesday15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	29	27
Market	56	23	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Leicester v Peterborough15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	62	22	16
Market	62	19	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	71	29

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Mansfield Town v Bromley15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	28	23
Market	52	25	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Milton Keynes Dons v Reading15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	29	37
Market	37	26	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Stevenage v Wigan15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	30	24
Market	45	29	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Stockport County v Barnsley15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	60	23	17
Market	67	18	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Wycombe v Luton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	27	40
Market	36	26	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	29	34
Market	35	29	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Alaves v Atletico Madrid15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	19	26	54
Market	22	25	53

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Barcelona v Getafe17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	86	11	4
Market	89	7	4

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	71	29
Market	75	25

Under 4.5 goals: 66% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Real Madrid v Villarreal20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	62	21	17
Market	71	16	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	75	25

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Serie A

Genoa v Fiorentina14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	27	28	45
Market	29	29	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Inter v Parma17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	83	12	5
Market	85	10	5

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	68	32
Market	71	29

Under 4.5 goals: 66% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Napoli v Frosinone19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	70	19	11
Market	66	19	15

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	58	23	19
Market	67	19	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

FC Augsburg v Bayern München14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	12	17	71
Market	8	10	82

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	75	25
Market	83	17

Under 4.5 goals: 65% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	25	49
Market	32	24	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	18	22	60
Market	19	20	61

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	66	34
Market	71	29

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Union Berlin v SV Elversberg14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	26	29
Market	41	25	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	61	21	18
Market	61	19	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	70	30
Market	75	25

Under 4.5 goals: 72% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ligue 1

Lille v Le Havre16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	66	22	12
Market	66	20	14

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Lorient v Paris FC19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	29	44
Market	28	29	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Monaco v Toulouse19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	27	26
Market	60	22	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	83	13	4
Market	87	8	5

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	67	33
Market	76	24

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Stade Brestois 29 v Angers19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	27	26
Market	47	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

AD Ceuta FC v Sabadell15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	32	28
Market	31	28	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	37	63
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Eldense v Cordoba17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	28	26
Market	41	26	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Celta de Vigo II v Real Sociedad II20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	27	27
Market	41	27	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Scottish Premiership

Dundee Utd v Hibernian15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	25	47
Market	34	27	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Falkirk v Dundee15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	27	31
Market	48	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Heart Of Midlothian v ST Mirren15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	70	19	11
Market	65	20	15

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	66	34
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Rangers v Kilmarnock15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	72	18	9
Market	83	11	6

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	73	27

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Eredivisie

GO Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	25	28
Market	56	23	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	26	25
Market	54	24	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Fortuna Sittard v Twente19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	10	16	74
Market	15	18	66

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	70	30
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 68% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ajax v NEC Nijmegen20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	73	17	10
Market	73	15	12

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	68	32
Market	74	26

Under 4.5 goals: 70% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Primeira Liga

Casa Pia v Santa Clara15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	30	41
Market	20	28	51

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	43	57
Market	41	59

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Maritimo v FC Porto18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	12	21	67
Market	10	18	72

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Academico Viseu v Estoril20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	28	31
Market	41	28	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Amed11:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	29	45
Market	28	28	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Alanyaspor v Erzurumspor FK14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	52	28	20
Market	50	28	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Samsunspor v Trabzonspor14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	26	44
Market	25	25	49

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Rizespor v Fenerbahçe17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	13	18	69
Market	21	23	56

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	74	26
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 67% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

How the calls did

✓PSV Eindhoven 2–0 HeerenveenPSV Eindhoven home win 79%

✓Galatasaray 3–1 KasımpaşaGalatasaray home win 75%

✕PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Heerenveen over 2.5 goals 74%

✕Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund home win 70%

✓Galatasaray 3–1 Kasımpaşa over 2.5 goals 64%

✕West Ham 1–1 QPR over 2.5 goals 63%

✓Moreirense 0–1 GIL Vicente under 2.5 goals 63%

✕SC Braga 1–3 Sporting CP under 2.5 goals 56%

4 of 8 settled since yesterday · 237 of 361 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 5/8, we claimed 57% · 346/726 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 44% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 5/8, we claimed 61% · 411/726 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 51% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

64 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-10-10 07:14 UK