Football ratings

Sunday 11 October 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

76%Beşiktaş — home winBeşiktaş v Kocaelispor · 17:00 · market 76% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

73%Benfica — home winBenfica v Guimaraes · 18:00 · market 80% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

72%SC Freiburg — home winSC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 · 16:30 · market 59% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

£10 on all 3 as one multiple returns about £24 if every one lands. The model puts that at 40%, the market at 35%, and the price needs 42% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

69%Benfica v Guimaraes — over 2.5 goals18:00 · market 66% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

69%SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 — over 2.5 goals16:30 · market 58% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

68%Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor — over 2.5 goals17:00 · market 61% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

66%Motherwell v Celtic — over 2.5 goals12:00 · market 65% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

65%Rennes v Auxerre — over 2.5 goals16:15 · market 65% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

64%Rio Ave v Nacional — under 2.5 goals15:30 · market 54% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

62%Utrecht v Willem II — over 2.5 goals11:15 · market 65% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Estac Troyes v Marseille — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 60% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 63% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	27	43
Market	34	28	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Hull City v Everton14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	24	28	48
Market	27	28	45

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Liverpool v Manchester City16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	26	49
Market	32	25	43

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Championship

Southampton v Portsmouth12:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	65	21	14
Market	60	22	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Elche v Celta Vigo13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	28	37
Market	34	29	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	28	25
Market	60	23	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Real Betis v Osasuna17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	65	22	13
Market	63	21	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Racing Santander v Valencia20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	29	36
Market	42	27	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Serie A

Como v AS Roma11:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	25	46
Market	38	27	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Lazio v Monza14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	68	21	11
Market	58	24	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Lecce v Bologna14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	20	26	53
Market	21	29	50

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sassuolo v AC Milan17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	27	47
Market	22	25	52

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Cagliari v Juventus19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	19	25	55
Market	15	24	61

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Bundesliga

1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	26	27
Market	46	25	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 0416:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	72	18	10
Market	59	24	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ligue 1

Nice v Strasbourg14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	29	33
Market	41	26	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Rennes v Auxerre16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	62	21	16
Market	67	19	14

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Estac Troyes v Marseille19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	19	23	58
Market	26	25	49

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga 2

FC Andorra v Castellón13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	28	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Almeria v Leganes15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	57	25	18
Market	58	23	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Mallorca v Las Palmas17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	27	21
Market	61	22	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Cadiz v Sporting Gijon20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	29	37
Market	38	31	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Scottish Premiership

Motherwell v Celtic12:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	19	21	59
Market	20	21	59

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	66	34
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 72% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Aberdeen v ST Johnstone14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	30	30
Market	44	29	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

Utrecht v Willem II11:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	65	21	14
Market	63	21	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

PEC Zwolle v Cambuur13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	28	28
Market	46	25	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Telstar v ADO Den Haag13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	28	29
Market	47	25	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Excelsior v Groningen15:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	27	36
Market	37	26	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Primeira Liga

Rio Ave v Nacional15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	32	32
Market	41	30	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	36	64
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 93% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Benfica v Guimaraes18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	73	18	9
Market	80	13	7

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Arouca v Estrela20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	28	31
Market	46	28	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Konyaspor v Başakşehir11:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	21	25	54
Market	35	28	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 16 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Gaziantep FK v Çorum FK14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	28	39
Market	36	29	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	76	16	8
Market	76	16	9

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	68	32
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✓Barcelona 3–0 GetafeBarcelona home win 86%

✓Inter 3–0 ParmaInter home win 83%

✓Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Le MansParis Saint Germain home win 83%

✓FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern München over 2.5 goals 75%

✓Rizespor 0–3 Fenerbahçe over 2.5 goals 74%

✕Fortuna Sittard 1–1 TwenteTwente away win 74%

✕Ajax 1–1 NEC NijmegenAjax home win 73%

✓Arsenal 2–1 LeedsArsenal home win 73%

✓Rangers 3–1 KilmarnockRangers home win 72%

✕FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern MünchenBayern München away win 71%

✓Barcelona 3–0 Getafe over 2.5 goals 71%

✓RB Leipzig 6–0 Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.5 goals 70%

✕Fortuna Sittard 1–1 Twente over 2.5 goals 70%

✓Rizespor 0–3 FenerbahçeFenerbahçe away win 69%

✕Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen over 2.5 goals 68%

✓Inter 3–0 Parma over 2.5 goals 68%

✓Maritimo 1–2 FC PortoFC Porto away win 67%

✓Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Le Mans over 2.5 goals 67%

✕SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart over 2.5 goals 66%

✓Heart Of Midlothian 5–0 ST Mirren over 2.5 goals 66%

✕Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal over 2.5 goals 64%

✓FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen over 2.5 goals 63%

✕Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham over 2.5 goals 63%

✓1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV over 2.5 goals 63%

✕AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Sabadell under 2.5 goals 63%

✓GO Ahead Eagles 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam over 2.5 goals 62%

✓Leicester 1–3 Peterborough over 2.5 goals 61%

✓Rangers 3–1 Kilmarnock over 2.5 goals 61%

✕Dundee Utd 1–0 Hibernian over 2.5 goals 61%

✓Ipswich 2–1 Fulham over 2.5 goals 61%

✓Maritimo 1–2 FC Porto over 2.5 goals 60%

✓Bradford 0–0 Leyton Orient under 2.5 goals 58%

✓Stevenage 1–0 Wigan under 2.5 goals 58%

✓Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara under 2.5 goals 57%

✕Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–2 Amed under 2.5 goals 56%

✓Lorient 1–0 Paris FC under 2.5 goals 56%

✓Alanyaspor 0–0 Erzurumspor FK under 2.5 goals 56%

✓West Brom 0–1 Birmingham under 2.5 goals 55%

27 of 38 settled since yesterday · 264 of 399 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 39/63, we claimed 52% · 385/789 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 43% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 41/63, we claimed 58% · 452/789 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 53% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

34 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-10-11 07:11 UK