Football ratings

Monday 12 October 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

Nothing clears the bar today. The thresholds are set where the model has historically been as good as it claims — home win 70%, away win 60% — and a quiet day is a real answer, not a gap.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

60%Famalicao v Alverca — under 2.5 goals20:15 · market 53% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

58%Tenerife v Girona — under 2.5 goals20:00 · market 57% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Burgos v Granada CF — under 2.5 goals15:15 · market 57% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Coventry v Newcastle20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	28	39
Market	30	27	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Levante v Sevilla20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	28	32
Market	36	29	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Serie A

Atalanta v Venezia17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	61	22	17
Market	63	22	15

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Torino v Udinese19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	28	39
Market	40	31	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga 2

Valladolid v Albacete13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	29	31
Market	48	29	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Burgos v Granada CF15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	30	31
Market	39	30	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Oviedo v Eibar17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	29	36
Market	41	31	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	41	59

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Tenerife v Girona20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	30	38
Market	33	31	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Primeira Liga

Famalicao v Alverca20:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	30	23
Market	51	28	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	40	60
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Eyüpspor v Göztepe18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	28	34
Market	24	26	51

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

How the calls did

✓Beşiktaş 2–1 KocaelisporBeşiktaş home win 76%

✓Benfica 2–0 GuimaraesBenfica home win 73%

✓SC Freiburg 2–1 FC Schalke 04SC Freiburg home win 72%

✕Benfica 2–0 Guimaraes over 2.5 goals 69%

✓SC Freiburg 2–1 FC Schalke 04 over 2.5 goals 69%

✓Beşiktaş 2–1 Kocaelispor over 2.5 goals 68%

✕Motherwell 0–2 Celtic over 2.5 goals 66%

✓Rennes 4–1 Auxerre over 2.5 goals 65%

✕Rio Ave 3–2 Nacional under 2.5 goals 64%

✓Utrecht 3–1 Willem II over 2.5 goals 62%

✕Estac Troyes 0–2 Marseille over 2.5 goals 62%

✓1. FC Köln 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.5 goals 60%

8 of 12 settled since yesterday · 272 of 411 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 21/34, we claimed 51% · 406/823 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 45% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 19/34, we claimed 56% · 472/823 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 51% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

10 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-10-12 07:09 UK