Football ratings

Tuesday 13 October 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

61%PSV Eindhoven — away winRB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven · 20:00 · market 24% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 1 as one multiple returns about £40 if every one lands. The model puts that at 61%, the market at 24%, and the price needs 25% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

76%RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 72% · this strong, 75% land (134 cases)

64%Atletico Madrid v Manchester United — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 63% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Galatasaray v Barcelona — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 79% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

Every fixture

Championship

Bristol City v Blackburn19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	28	31
Market	46	28	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Burnley v Charlton19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	29	25
Market	58	24	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Cardiff v Watford19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	25	26
Market	55	22	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Millwall v Swansea19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	28	33
Market	38	28	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Wolves v Bolton19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	59	25	16
Market	67	19	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Wrexham v West Brom19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	29	26
Market	42	28	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Birmingham v Preston20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	26	23
Market	61	22	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Stoke City v Middlesbrough20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	26	46
Market	28	25	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

UEFA Champions League

New competition — experimental. The model has never been trained or tested on it, these clubs are rated across leagues whose ratings have never been calibrated against each other, and the probabilities use a fallback calibration. Treat them as much weaker than the domestic ones.

Lens v Sporting CP17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	21	25	54
Market	38	26	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 17 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Sabah FA v Slavia Praha17:45

Not rated — Slavia Praha has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Arsenal v Lille20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	66	22	13
Market	79	14	7

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Atletico Madrid v Manchester United20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	24	23
Market	50	24	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Galatasaray v Barcelona20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	26	30
Market	11	13	75

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	79	21

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 33 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Inter v Club Brugge KV20:00

Not rated — Club Brugge KV has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	20	20	61
Market	55	21	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	76	24
Market	72	27

Under 4.5 goals: 62% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 37 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Viking v Bayern München20:00

Not rated — Viking has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Villarreal v Napoli20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	26	34
Market	45	26	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✕Famalicao 1–4 Alverca under 2.5 goals 60%

✓Tenerife 1–1 Girona under 2.5 goals 58%

✓Burgos 0–1 Granada CF under 2.5 goals 56%

2 of 3 settled since yesterday · 274 of 414 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 2/10, we claimed 42% · 408/833 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 35% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 5/10, we claimed 55% · 476/833 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 51% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

14 rated · 3 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-10-13 07:10 UK