Football ratings

Friday 16 October 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

Nothing clears the bar today. The thresholds are set where the model has historically been as good as it claims — home win 70%, away win 60% — and a quiet day is a real answer, not a gap.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

63%Çorum FK v Rizespor — over 2.5 goals18:00 · market 55% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln — over 2.5 goals19:30 · market 70% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

Every fixture

Championship

Burnley v Wolves20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	27	41
Market	33	27	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Deportivo La Coruna v Levante20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	27	33
Market	46	27	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Serie A

Frosinone v Sassuolo19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	26	35
Market	38	27	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	26	27
Market	50	24	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ligue 1

Le Mans v Toulouse19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	27	43
Market	32	27	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

Leganes v Cordoba19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	27	36
Market	41	27	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

Heerenveen v Excelsior19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	57	24	19
Market	60	22	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Çorum FK v Rizespor18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	25	26
Market	48	25	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

No calls have been settled since yesterday.

0 of 0 settled since yesterday · 277 of 421 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 0/1, we claimed 46% · 420/857 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 27% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 0/1, we claimed 53% · 491/857 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 47% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

8 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-10-16 07:02 UK