Football ratings

Saturday 17 October 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

79%Manchester City — home winManchester City v Ipswich · 15:00 · market 78% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

76%PSV Eindhoven — away winADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven · 15:30 · market 75% · this strong, 76% land (315 cases)

75%AS Roma — home winAS Roma v Genoa · 19:45 · market 61% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

74%Southampton — home winSouthampton v Bolton · 15:00 · market 66% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

73%Fenerbahçe — home winFenerbahçe v Alanyaspor · 17:00 · market 74% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

73%Bayern München — home winBayern München v RB Leipzig · 17:30 · market 79% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

72%Stockport County — home winStockport County v Bromley · 15:00 · market 75% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

70%Feyenoord — away winTelstar v Feyenoord · 19:00 · market 71% · this strong, 74% land (779 cases)

69%Galatasaray — away winGençlerbirliği S.K. v Galatasaray · 14:00 · market 69% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)

65%Napoli — away winVenezia v Napoli · 14:00 · market 57% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)

65%Lens — away winEstac Troyes v Lens · 19:45 · market 52% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)

62%Rangers — away winDundee v Rangers · 20:00 · market 69% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 12 as one multiple returns about £554 if every one lands. The model puts that at 2%, the market at 1%, and the price needs 2% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

79%Bayern München v RB Leipzig — over 2.5 goals17:30 · market 83% · this strong, 75% land (134 cases)

70%ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven — over 2.5 goals15:30 · market 78% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

70%Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Galatasaray — over 2.5 goals14:00 · market 67% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

69%Stockport County v Bromley — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 67% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

68%Manchester City v Ipswich — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 70% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

68%FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 58% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

65%Dundee v Rangers — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 62% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

65%Bradford v Stevenage — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 59% · this strong, 55% land (156 cases)

64%SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 66% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

64%Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor — over 2.5 goals17:00 · market 61% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

64%Telstar v Feyenoord — over 2.5 goals19:00 · market 72% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

64%Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain — over 2.5 goals16:15 · market 71% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Real Betis v Barcelona — over 2.5 goals17:30 · market 79% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Estac Troyes v Lens — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 60% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 65% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Villarreal v Elche — over 2.5 goals15:15 · market 65% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Venezia v Napoli — over 2.5 goals14:00 · market 55% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 68% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Middlesbrough v Cardiff — over 2.5 goals12:30 · market 70% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Barnsley v Cambridge United — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 58% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

59%Eibar v Mallorca — under 2.5 goals15:15 · market 57% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Watford v Charlton — under 2.5 goals12:30 · market 51% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Everton v Chelsea12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	25	23
Market	31	26	43

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 21 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Brentford v Liverpool15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	28	33
Market	40	26	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Fulham v Hull City15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	58	26	16
Market	59	23	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Manchester City v Ipswich15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	79	14	7
Market	78	13	9

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	68	32
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 71% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Newcastle v Aston Villa17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	26	29
Market	42	26	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Championship

Middlesbrough v Cardiff12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	61	22	17
Market	62	19	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Millwall v Lincoln12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	29	24
Market	61	22	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Watford v Charlton12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	30	39
Market	37	28	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Birmingham v QPR15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	25	22
Market	48	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bristol City v Sheffield Utd15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	26	22
Market	48	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Derby v Stoke City15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	27	28
Market	32	27	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Norwich v Portsmouth15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	27	34
Market	51	26	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Southampton v Bolton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	74	18	8
Market	66	19	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Swansea v West Ham15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	24	50
Market	33	26	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

West Brom v Blackburn15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	27	33
Market	50	26	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Wrexham v Preston15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	26	25
Market	57	25	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

League One

Milton Keynes Dons v Luton12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	26	45
Market	28	25	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Peterborough v Burton Albion12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	27	32
Market	51	23	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Barnsley v Cambridge United15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	26	32
Market	38	25	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bradford v Stevenage15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	34	32
Market	48	29	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	35	65
Market	41	59

Under 4.5 goals: 95% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Leicester v Doncaster15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	57	25	18
Market	50	23	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Leyton Orient v Blackpool15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	28	34
Market	41	27	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Plymouth v Huddersfield15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	28	25
Market	36	28	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Sheffield Wednesday v AFC Wimbledon15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	25	20
Market	57	23	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Stockport County v Bromley15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	72	18	10
Market	75	15	10

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Wigan v Reading15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	27	48
Market	23	26	51

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Wycombe v Notts County15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	26	24
Market	49	26	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Espanyol v Atletico Madrid13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	21	26	53
Market	19	24	57

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Villarreal v Elche15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	67	20	13
Market	66	19	15

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Real Betis v Barcelona17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	24	52
Market	15	16	68

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	79	21

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 17 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Valencia v Athletic Club20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	28	46
Market	30	29	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Serie A

Venezia v Napoli14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	15	20	65
Market	20	23	57

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Bologna v Inter17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	23	26	52
Market	15	23	61

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

AS Roma v Genoa19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	75	17	8
Market	61	23	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Bundesliga

FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 0514:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	22	23	55
Market	31	27	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	68	32
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	25	50
Market	23	24	54

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	26	35
Market	39	26	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	18	24	57
Market	19	22	59

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 0714:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	25	20
Market	54	23	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bayern München v RB Leipzig17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	73	16	11
Market	79	12	9

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	79	21
Market	83	17

Under 4.5 goals: 60% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ligue 1

Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	24	51
Market	15	17	68

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	71	29

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 17 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Estac Troyes v Lens19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	14	21	65
Market	24	24	52

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Lille v Stade Brestois 2919:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	26	27
Market	48	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

Real Sociedad II v Almeria13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	22	27	51
Market	27	26	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eibar v Mallorca15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	31	32
Market	35	33	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	41	59
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sporting Gijon v Albacete17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	54	26	20
Market	49	27	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Las Palmas v Castellón20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	28	37
Market	27	26	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Scottish Premiership

Aberdeen v ST Mirren15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	28	31
Market	52	25	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Hibernian v Falkirk15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	52	26	22
Market	56	24	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Kilmarnock v Motherwell15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	27	42
Market	31	26	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

ST Johnstone v Dundee Utd15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	28	43
Market	36	27	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Dundee v Rangers20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	17	21	62
Market	12	18	69

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Eredivisie

ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	9	15	76
Market	11	14	75

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	70	30
Market	78	22

Under 4.5 goals: 68% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Telstar v Feyenoord19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	11	19	70
Market	12	17	71

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	72	28

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	24	23
Market	58	21	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor11:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	29	33
Market	59	25	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 21 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Amed v Konyaspor14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	27	20
Market	50	26	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Galatasaray14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	12	18	69
Market	13	18	69

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	70	30
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 71% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	73	18	9
Market	74	16	10

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✓Çorum FK 2–1 Rizespor over 2.5 goals 63%

✕Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 1. FC Köln over 2.5 goals 61%

1 of 2 settled since yesterday · 278 of 423 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 6/8, we claimed 44% · 426/865 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 42% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 5/8, we claimed 58% · 497/865 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 52% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

59 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-10-17 07:07 UK