Football ratings

Sunday 18 October 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

75%Real Madrid — home winReal Madrid v Sevilla · 20:00 · market 78% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

71%AZ Alkmaar — away winCambuur v AZ Alkmaar · 13:30 · market 64% · this strong, 74% land (779 cases)

£10 on all 2 as one multiple returns about £18 if every one lands. The model puts that at 54%, the market at 50%, and the price needs 55% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

67%Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar — over 2.5 goals13:30 · market 69% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

67%Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 65% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

66%Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheim — over 2.5 goals16:30 · market 68% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

64%Groningen v Ajax — over 2.5 goals15:45 · market 70% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles — over 2.5 goals11:15 · market 64% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Real Madrid v Sevilla — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 68% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Celtic v Heart Of Midlothian — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 63% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Burgos v Sabadell — under 2.5 goals20:00 · market 64% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

58%Lorient v Monaco — under 2.5 goals16:15 · market 50% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Osasuna v Racing Santander — under 2.5 goals13:00 · market 41% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Bournemouth v Sunderland14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	28	26
Market	45	28	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Brighton v Crystal Palace14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	67	21	12
Market	64	20	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Leeds v Manchester United14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	26	41
Market	41	27	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	22	27	51
Market	16	25	59

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga

Osasuna v Racing Santander13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	29	24
Market	48	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Celta Vigo v Alaves15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	28	24
Market	43	29	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Malaga v Real Sociedad17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	29	40
Market	28	27	45

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Real Madrid v Sevilla20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	75	17	8
Market	78	14	8

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Serie A

Udinese v Lecce11:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	26	21
Market	53	27	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Fiorentina v Como14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	24	50
Market	28	26	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

AC Milan v Atalanta17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	52	27	22
Market	53	25	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Juventus v Lazio19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	54	26	20
Market	58	24	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	23	22
Market	57	21	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	67	33
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheim16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	24	48
Market	31	24	45

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	66	34
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ligue 1

Angers v Marseille14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	27	26	47
Market	27	25	48

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Le Havre v Auxerre16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	25	26
Market	42	28	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Lorient v Monaco16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	30	43
Market	26	29	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Paris FC v Rennes16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	27	30
Market	42	29	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Lyon v Nice19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	58	24	18
Market	53	24	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	28	31
Market	30	28	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Granada CF v Cadiz15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	26	23
Market	50	28	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Girona v FC Andorra17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	61	23	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Valladolid v Eldense17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	28	26
Market	51	28	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Burgos v Sabadell20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	31	30
Market	34	33	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	40	60
Market	36	64

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Scottish Premiership

Celtic v Heart Of Midlothian15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	24	21
Market	60	20	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles11:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	24	24	52
Market	26	25	49

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	11	18	71
Market	16	19	64

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	67	33
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 72% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Groningen v Ajax15:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	24	50
Market	28	22	51

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	25	25
Market	57	22	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Twente v Utrecht19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	62	23	15
Market	71	17	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	71	29

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Super Lig

Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor11:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	29	27
Market	39	28	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Kocaelispor v Göztepe14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	27	30
Market	32	29	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	24	21
Market	59	22	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✓Manchester City 3–2 IpswichManchester City home win 79%

✓Bayern München 6–1 RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals 79%

✕ADO Den Haag 2–1 PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven away win 76%

✓AS Roma 2–0 GenoaAS Roma home win 75%

✕Southampton 0–0 BoltonSouthampton home win 74%

✓Fenerbahçe 3–0 AlanyasporFenerbahçe home win 73%

✓Bayern München 6–1 RB LeipzigBayern München home win 73%

✓Stockport County 1–0 BromleyStockport County home win 72%

✓Telstar 3–4 FeyenoordFeyenoord away win 70%

✓ADO Den Haag 2–1 PSV Eindhoven over 2.5 goals 70%

✕Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 Galatasaray over 2.5 goals 70%

✓Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 GalatasarayGalatasaray away win 69%

✕Stockport County 1–0 Bromley over 2.5 goals 69%

✓Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich over 2.5 goals 68%

✕FC Schalke 04 0–1 FSV Mainz 05 over 2.5 goals 68%

✓Dundee 2–2 Rangers over 2.5 goals 65%

✕Venezia 1–0 NapoliNapoli away win 65%

✓Bradford 2–0 Stevenage under 2.5 goals 65%

✓Estac Troyes 1–3 LensLens away win 65%

✓SV Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg over 2.5 goals 64%

✓Fenerbahçe 3–0 Alanyaspor over 2.5 goals 64%

✓Telstar 3–4 Feyenoord over 2.5 goals 64%

✓Strasbourg 1–3 Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 goals 64%

✓Real Betis 2–5 Barcelona over 2.5 goals 63%

✓Estac Troyes 1–3 Lens over 2.5 goals 62%

✕Dundee 2–2 RangersRangers away win 62%

✓Sparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem II over 2.5 goals 62%

✕Villarreal 0–0 Elche over 2.5 goals 62%

✕Venezia 1–0 Napoli over 2.5 goals 61%

✕Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart over 2.5 goals 61%

✓Middlesbrough 2–2 Cardiff over 2.5 goals 60%

✓Barnsley 1–2 Cambridge United over 2.5 goals 60%

✓Eibar 1–1 Mallorca under 2.5 goals 59%

✓Watford 2–0 Charlton under 2.5 goals 56%

24 of 34 settled since yesterday · 302 of 457 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 31/59, we claimed 53% · 457/924 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 41% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 35/59, we claimed 58% · 531/924 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 52% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

33 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-10-18 07:05 UK