Football ratings
Monday 19 October 2026 · times UK
The model's strongest calls
Nothing clears the bar today. The thresholds are set where the model has historically been as good as it claims — home win 70%, away win 60% — and a quiet day is a real answer, not a gap.
Goals — supporting, not headline
These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.
59%Getafe v Rayo Vallecano — under 2.5 goals20:00 · market 64% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)
55%Parma v Torino — under 2.5 goals19:45 · market 60% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)
Every fixture
Premier League
Tottenham v Coventry20:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 52 | 26 | 22 |
| Market | 64 | 21 | 16 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 56 | 44 | |
| Market | 60 | 40 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 12 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
La Liga
Getafe v Rayo Vallecano20:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 33 | 31 | 36 |
| Market | 32 | 33 | 36 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 41 | 59 | |
| Market | 36 | 64 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Serie A
Monza v Cagliari17:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 44 | 29 | 27 |
| Market | 39 | 31 | 31 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 47 | 53 | |
| Market | 45 | 55 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Parma v Torino19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 30 | 29 | 41 |
| Market | 29 | 32 | 39 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 45 | 55 | |
| Market | 40 | 60 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway
La Liga 2
Celta de Vigo II v Tenerife19:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 38 | 29 | 32 |
| Market | 36 | 29 | 35 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 45 | 55 | |
| Market | 46 | 54 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Primeira Liga
SC Braga v GIL Vicente20:15
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 55 | 26 | 19 |
| Market | 61 | 24 | 15 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 54 | 46 | |
| Market | 47 | 53 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Super Lig
Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş18:00
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 43 | 28 | 29 |
| Market | 38 | 25 | 37 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 52 | 48 | |
| Market | 62 | 38 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway
How the calls did
✓Real Madrid 4–1 SevillaReal Madrid home win 75%
✕Cambuur 2–2 AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar away win 71%
✓Cambuur 2–2 AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 goals 67%
✓Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg over 2.5 goals 67%
✓Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.5 goals 66%
✓Groningen 2–5 Ajax over 2.5 goals 64%
✓PEC Zwolle 4–1 GO Ahead Eagles over 2.5 goals 63%
✓Real Madrid 4–1 Sevilla over 2.5 goals 62%
✓Celtic 7–1 Heart Of Midlothian over 2.5 goals 61%
✓Burgos 1–0 Sabadell under 2.5 goals 60%
✓Lorient 1–0 Monaco under 2.5 goals 58%
✓Osasuna 2–0 Racing Santander under 2.5 goals 56%
11 of 12 settled since yesterday · 313 of 469 since the model went live.
Every match, for the record
The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.
·Resulttop pick right 21/33, we claimed 51% · 478/957 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 42% on average
·Over/under 2.5top pick right 21/33, we claimed 58% · 552/957 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 55% on average
A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.
Changed after we rated them
🕒SC Braga v GIL Vicentemoved to Mon 19 Oct · 20:15