Football ratings

Friday 23 October 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

70%VfB Stuttgart — home winVfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach · 19:30 · market 70% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

£10 on all 1 as one multiple returns about £13 if every one lands. The model puts that at 70%, the market at 70%, and the price needs 75% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

65%VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach — over 2.5 goals19:30 · market 75% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

60%Bolton v Middlesbrough — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 62% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Ipswich v Nottingham Forest — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 53% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%GO Ahead Eagles v Telstar — over 2.5 goals19:00 · market 70% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

56%Stade Brestois 29 v Nice — under 2.5 goals19:45 · market 45% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

55%Alaves v Malaga — under 2.5 goals20:00 · market 53% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Ipswich v Nottingham Forest20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	26	44
Market	30	28	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Championship

Bolton v Middlesbrough20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	23	24	54
Market	19	21	60

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Alaves v Malaga20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	28	21
Market	58	25	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Serie A

Torino v Monza19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	54	25	21
Market	44	28	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	70	19	11
Market	70	17	14

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	75	25

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29 v Nice19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	30	27
Market	42	29	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

Granada CF v Valladolid19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	27	27
Market	43	29	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

GO Ahead Eagles v Telstar19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	56	24	20
Market	59	24	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Primeira Liga

Guimaraes v Maritimo20:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	58	24	17
Market	58	25	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	27	24
Market	48	30	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

No calls have been settled since yesterday.

0 of 0 settled since yesterday · 320 of 479 since the model went live.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

10 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-10-23 21:38 UK