Football ratings

Saturday 24 October 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

79%Rangers — home winRangers v ST Johnstone · 15:00 · market 78% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

74%Borussia Dortmund — home winBorussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt · 17:30 · market 64% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

74%Atletico Madrid — home winAtletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna · 20:00 · market 74% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

71%RB Leipzig — home winRB Leipzig v SV Elversberg · 14:30 · market 67% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

71%Como — home winComo v Sassuolo · 14:00 · market 64% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

64%FC Porto — away winGIL Vicente v FC Porto · 20:30 · market 67% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 6 as one multiple returns about £69 if every one lands. The model puts that at 14%, the market at 11%, and the price needs 15% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

79%RB Leipzig v SV Elversberg — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 75% · this strong, 75% land (134 cases)

65%FC Augsburg v Union Berlin — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 65% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

65%Como v Sassuolo — over 2.5 goals14:00 · market 67% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

64%Utrecht v PEC Zwolle — over 2.5 goals15:30 · market 64% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

64%West Ham v Southampton — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 64% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Rangers v ST Johnstone — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 65% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Lens v Paris FC — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 57% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Alverca v Arouca — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 49% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

61%Chelsea v Tottenham — over 2.5 goals17:30 · market 63% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt — over 2.5 goals17:30 · market 69% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

57%Leganes v Mallorca — under 2.5 goals15:15 · market 58% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Notts County v Stockport County — under 2.5 goals15:00 · market 47% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Aston Villa v Manchester City12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	27	48
Market	19	21	60

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Arsenal v Everton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	63	23	14
Market	65	22	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Coventry v Fulham15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	29	40
Market	30	27	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Chelsea v Tottenham17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	52	25	24
Market	53	24	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Championship

Charlton v Norwich12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	28	34
Market	29	27	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Portsmouth v Millwall12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	28	27
Market	38	29	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Sheffield Utd v Derby12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	28	28
Market	54	24	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Blackburn v Wrexham15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	28	31
Market	35	30	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Cardiff v Birmingham15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	26	38
Market	35	25	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Lincoln v Burnley15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	27	34
Market	35	27	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Preston v West Brom15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	24	27	49
Market	26	27	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

QPR v Swansea15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	29	38
Market	37	28	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Stoke City v Bristol City15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	28	37
Market	38	29	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

West Ham v Southampton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	63	21	16
Market	57	22	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Wolves v Watford15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	68	20	12
Market	69	19	12

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

League One

Huddersfield v Wigan12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	64	23	13
Market	72	17	11

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Luton v Leicester12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	27	35
Market	42	24	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	29	43
Market	22	26	52

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Blackpool v Mansfield Town15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	27	37
Market	35	26	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bromley v Peterborough15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	28	40
Market	29	23	48

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Burton Albion v Leyton Orient15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	28	31
Market	36	29	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Cambridge United v Plymouth15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	27	36
Market	39	26	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Doncaster v Sheffield Wednesday15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	27	47
Market	35	26	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Notts County v Stockport County15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	23	29	47
Market	17	23	60

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Oxford United v Bradford15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	28	19
Market	36	28	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 17 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Reading v Barnsley15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	54	25	21
Market	58	21	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Stevenage v Milton Keynes Dons15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	28	23
Market	48	28	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Rayo Vallecano v Elche13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	56	25	19
Market	54	25	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Racing Santander v Espanyol15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	28	31
Market	40	26	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Valencia v Villarreal17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	23	24	53
Market	30	26	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	74	18	8
Market	74	16	9

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Serie A

Cagliari v Bologna14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	28	33
Market	33	31	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Como v Sassuolo14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	71	18	11
Market	64	20	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 70% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Napoli v AS Roma17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	26	40
Market	35	28	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Lazio v Parma19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	66	22	12
Market	68	21	12

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

1. FC Köln v FC Schalke 0414:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	27	25
Market	46	26	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FC Augsburg v Union Berlin14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	24	23
Market	52	23	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	26	25
Market	55	24	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

RB Leipzig v SV Elversberg14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	71	17	12
Market	67	19	15

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	79	21
Market	75	25

Under 4.5 goals: 60% · happens 86% of the time anyway

SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	27	37
Market	42	27	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	74	18	8
Market	64	20	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ligue 1

Lens v Paris FC19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	25	26
Market	38	27	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga 2

Cordoba v Eibar13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	28	37
Market	44	29	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Leganes v Mallorca15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	25	29	45
Market	29	30	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	43	57
Market	42	58

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Girona v Celta de Vigo II17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	66	22	13
Market	69	19	11

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Las Palmas v Real Sociedad II17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	27	28
Market	48	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Almeria v Oviedo20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	55	25	20
Market	56	25	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Scottish Premiership

Dundee Utd v Aberdeen15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	27	23
Market	45	27	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Falkirk v Kilmarnock15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	29	28
Market	50	25	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Rangers v ST Johnstone15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	79	15	6
Market	78	14	7

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

ST Mirren v Dundee15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	27	33
Market	42	26	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

Utrecht v PEC Zwolle15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	70	19	11
Market	59	22	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Willem II v Cambuur17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	26	34
Market	37	26	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

ADO Den Haag v Heerenveen20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	27	47
Market	27	25	48

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Primeira Liga

Estrela v Casa Pia15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	27	23
Market	55	25	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Alverca v Arouca18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	31	27
Market	44	30	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	39	61
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

GIL Vicente v FC Porto20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	13	23	64
Market	13	21	67

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Eyüpspor v Kasımpaşa11:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	29	44
Market	17	24	58

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	28	22
Market	39	29	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Samsunspor v Amed17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	30	36
Market	27	26	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

How the calls did

✕VfB Stuttgart 2–3 Borussia MönchengladbachVfB Stuttgart home win 70%

✓VfB Stuttgart 2–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.5 goals 65%

✓Bolton 1–5 Middlesbrough over 2.5 goals 60%

✕Ipswich 1–1 Nottingham Forest over 2.5 goals 60%

✓GO Ahead Eagles 3–2 Telstar over 2.5 goals 60%

✕Stade Brestois 29 1–2 Nice under 2.5 goals 56%

✓Alaves 1–1 Malaga under 2.5 goals 55%

4 of 7 settled since yesterday · 324 of 486 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 5/10, we claimed 53% · 500/997 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 38% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 8/10, we claimed 57% · 577/997 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 54% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

60 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-10-24 07:06 UK