Football ratings

Sunday 25 October 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

81%Sporting CP — home winSporting CP v Academico Viseu · 20:30 · market 77% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)

78%Inter — home winInter v Fiorentina · 11:30 · market 71% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

66%Celtic — away winHibernian v Celtic · 12:00 · market 62% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)

64%Juventus — away winLecce v Juventus · 17:00 · market 63% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

61%Heart Of Midlothian — away winMotherwell v Heart Of Midlothian · 14:00 · market 45% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 5 as one multiple returns about £81 if every one lands. The model puts that at 16%, the market at 10%, and the price needs 12% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

74%Sporting CP v Academico Viseu — over 2.5 goals20:30 · market 63% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

69%Inter v Fiorentina — over 2.5 goals11:30 · market 68% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

69%Rennes v Strasbourg — over 2.5 goals16:15 · market 67% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

68%PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord — over 2.5 goals13:30 · market 73% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

68%1899 Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 70% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

67%SC Freiburg v Bayern München — over 2.5 goals16:30 · market 76% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

67%Göztepe v Çorum FK — over 2.5 goals16:00 · market 59% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

66%AZ Alkmaar v Twente — over 2.5 goals19:00 · market 66% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

65%Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax — over 2.5 goals15:45 · market 71% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

64%Barcelona v Real Madrid — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 81% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

64%Motherwell v Heart Of Midlothian — over 2.5 goals14:00 · market 58% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Hibernian v Celtic — over 2.5 goals12:00 · market 63% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%NEC Nijmegen v Groningen — over 2.5 goals13:30 · market 67% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Sabadell v Tenerife — under 2.5 goals13:00 · market 63% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Crystal Palace v Newcastle14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	27	30
Market	33	26	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Hull City v Brentford14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	29	37
Market	19	23	57

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 20 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Liverpool v Brighton14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	27	28
Market	45	24	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Manchester United v Bournemouth14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	27	29
Market	43	26	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sunderland v Leeds16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	29	38
Market	32	30	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Athletic Club v Getafe13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	28	22
Market	60	24	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	41	59

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Celta Vigo v Real Betis15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	28	41
Market	30	27	43

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Real Sociedad v Levante17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	27	31
Market	60	21	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 18 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Barcelona v Real Madrid20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	59	22	19
Market	58	16	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	81	19

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Serie A

Inter v Fiorentina11:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	78	14	8
Market	71	17	12

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 63% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Atalanta v Frosinone14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	63	22	15
Market	52	23	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Genoa v Venezia14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	27	23
Market	44	30	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Lecce v Juventus17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	15	21	64
Market	14	23	63

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Udinese v AC Milan19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	23	25	52
Market	20	25	55

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	24	23	53
Market	34	24	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	68	32
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

SC Freiburg v Bayern München16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	23	23	54
Market	15	18	67

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	67	33
Market	76	24

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 13 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ligue 1

Monaco v Lille14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	29	31
Market	49	28	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Angers v Lorient16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	28	36
Market	32	29	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Auxerre v Le Mans16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	27	26
Market	47	26	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Marseille v Le Havre16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	63	22	14
Market	63	20	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Rennes v Strasbourg16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	59	22	20
Market	53	22	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 71% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Toulouse v Estac Troyes16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	62	24	14
Market	60	22	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

Sabadell v Tenerife13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	30	25
Market	50	30	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	39	61
Market	37	63

Under 4.5 goals: 92% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Albacete v Eldense15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	27	35
Market	40	28	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Cadiz v AD Ceuta FC15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	27	35
Market	50	28	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Castellón v Sporting Gijon17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	52	27	21
Market	63	22	15

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Scottish Premiership

Hibernian v Celtic12:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	14	20	66
Market	17	20	62

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Motherwell v Heart Of Midlothian14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	17	22	61
Market	29	25	45

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	64	36
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 16 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior11:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	28	35
Market	40	26	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

NEC Nijmegen v Groningen13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	25	25
Market	42	25	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	24	28
Market	46	23	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	68	32
Market	73	27

Under 4.5 goals: 71% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax15:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	20	22	58
Market	16	18	66

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	71	29

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

AZ Alkmaar v Twente19:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	24	32
Market	44	24	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	66	34
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Primeira Liga

Estoril v Moreirense15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	29	30
Market	49	26	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Nacional v SC Braga18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	20	25	55
Market	16	23	61

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Rio Ave v Famalicao18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	24	28	49
Market	25	29	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Sporting CP v Academico Viseu20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	81	13	6
Market	77	16	7

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	74	26
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 70% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Konyaspor v Gençlerbirliği S.K.13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	29	25
Market	50	28	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Göztepe v Çorum FK16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	25	34
Market	44	27	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	67	33
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✓Rangers 4–0 ST JohnstoneRangers home win 79%

✓RB Leipzig 4–0 SV Elversberg over 2.5 goals 79%

✓Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Eintracht FrankfurtBorussia Dortmund home win 74%

✓Atletico Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaAtletico Madrid home win 74%

✓RB Leipzig 4–0 SV ElversbergRB Leipzig home win 71%

✓Como 2–0 SassuoloComo home win 71%

✕FC Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin over 2.5 goals 65%

✕Como 2–0 Sassuolo over 2.5 goals 65%

✕Utrecht 1–1 PEC Zwolle over 2.5 goals 64%

✓GIL Vicente 0–1 FC PortoFC Porto away win 64%

✓West Ham 2–3 Southampton over 2.5 goals 64%

✓Rangers 4–0 ST Johnstone over 2.5 goals 63%

✓Lens 2–1 Paris FC over 2.5 goals 63%

✓Alverca 0–1 Arouca under 2.5 goals 61%

✕Chelsea 0–2 Tottenham over 2.5 goals 61%

✕Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.5 goals 61%

✓Leganes 1–1 Mallorca under 2.5 goals 57%

✓Notts County 1–1 Stockport County under 2.5 goals 56%

13 of 18 settled since yesterday · 337 of 504 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 29/60, we claimed 50% · 529/1057 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 40% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 34/60, we claimed 56% · 611/1057 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 51% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

39 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-10-25 06:05 UK