Football ratings

Monday 26 October 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

62%Benfica — away winSanta Clara v Benfica · 18:45 · market 67% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 1 as one multiple returns about £14 if every one lands. The model puts that at 62%, the market at 67%, and the price needs 71% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

67%Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe — over 2.5 goals18:30 · market 64% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

62%Paris Saint Germain v Lyon — over 2.5 goals19:30 · market 70% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

58%Sevilla v Osasuna — under 2.5 goals20:00 · market 57% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

La Liga

Sevilla v Osasuna20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	30	26
Market	50	28	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain v Lyon19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	68	20	12
Market	71	16	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

FC Andorra v Burgos19:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	28	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Primeira Liga

Santa Clara v Benfica18:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	15	24	62
Market	11	22	67

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Beşiktaş v Başakşehir16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	57	24	19
Market	69	17	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Rizespor v Trabzonspor16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	27	41
Market	27	24	49

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe18:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	24	25
Market	45	24	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	67	33
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✕Sporting CP 1–2 Academico ViseuSporting CP home win 81%

✓Inter 2–1 FiorentinaInter home win 78%

✓Sporting CP 1–2 Academico Viseu over 2.5 goals 74%

✓Inter 2–1 Fiorentina over 2.5 goals 69%

✓Rennes 3–0 Strasbourg over 2.5 goals 69%

✕PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Feyenoord over 2.5 goals 68%

✓1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 Bayer Leverkusen over 2.5 goals 68%

✓SC Freiburg 1–3 Bayern München over 2.5 goals 67%

✕Göztepe 2–0 Çorum FK over 2.5 goals 67%

✓Hibernian 1–2 CelticCeltic away win 66%

✕AZ Alkmaar 0–2 Twente over 2.5 goals 66%

✓Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax over 2.5 goals 65%

✓Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid over 2.5 goals 64%

✓Lecce 0–2 JuventusJuventus away win 64%

✕Motherwell 0–2 Heart Of Midlothian over 2.5 goals 64%

✓Hibernian 1–2 Celtic over 2.5 goals 62%

✓NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Groningen over 2.5 goals 62%

✓Motherwell 0–2 Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian away win 61%

✓Sabadell 1–1 Tenerife under 2.5 goals 61%

14 of 19 settled since yesterday · 351 of 523 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 20/39, we claimed 50% · 549/1096 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 39% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 18/39, we claimed 58% · 628/1096 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 52% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

7 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-10-26 06:02 UK