Football ratings
Tuesday 27 October 2026 · times UK
The model's strongest calls
70%AS Roma — home winAS Roma v Cagliari · 19:45 · market 72% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)
£10 on all 1 as one multiple returns about £13 if every one lands. The model puts that at 70%, the market at 72%, and the price needs 75% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.
Goals — supporting, not headline
These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.
62%Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 57% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)
Every fixture
League One
Leicester v Wigan19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 60 | 24 | 17 |
| Market | 68 | 19 | 13 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 58 | 42 | |
| Market | 65 | 35 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Luton v Doncaster19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 58 | 24 | 18 |
| Market | 62 | 21 | 18 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 57 | 43 | |
| Market | 63 | 37 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 58 | 24 | 18 |
| Market | 59 | 22 | 19 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 57 | 43 | |
| Market | 59 | 41 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Oxford United v Stockport County19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 37 | 30 | 33 |
| Market | 28 | 25 | 47 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 47 | 53 | |
| Market | 55 | 45 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 46 | 25 | 28 |
| Market | 47 | 25 | 28 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 62 | 38 | |
| Market | 57 | 43 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Serie A
Sassuolo v Lazio17:30
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 23 | 25 | 52 |
| Market | 29 | 26 | 45 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 56 | 44 | |
| Market | 58 | 42 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
AS Roma v Cagliari19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 70 | 19 | 11 |
| Market | 72 | 19 | 9 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 58 | 42 | |
| Market | 59 | 41 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway
Torino v Como19:45
| Home | Draw | Away |
|---|
| Model | 21 | 24 | 55 |
| Market | 18 | 25 | 57 |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | |
|---|
| Model | 57 | 43 | |
| Market | 58 | 42 | |
Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway
How the calls did
✓Galatasaray 2–1 Fenerbahçe over 2.5 goals 67%
✕Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Lyon over 2.5 goals 62%
✓Santa Clara 1–2 BenficaBenfica away win 62%
✓Sevilla 2–0 Osasuna under 2.5 goals 58%
3 of 4 settled since yesterday · 354 of 527 since the model went live.
Every match, for the record
The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.
·Resulttop pick right 6/7, we claimed 52% · 555/1103 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 51% on average
·Over/under 2.5top pick right 5/7, we claimed 57% · 634/1103 all-time
what actually happenedwe gave it 52% on average
A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.