Football ratings

Friday 30 October 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

75%Sporting CP — away winCasa Pia v Sporting CP · 20:15 · market 75% · this strong, 76% land (315 cases)

66%Galatasaray — away winKonyaspor v Galatasaray · 17:00 · market 62% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)

£10 on all 2 as one multiple returns about £20 if every one lands. The model puts that at 50%, the market at 46%, and the price needs 50% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

65%Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain — over 2.5 goals18:00 · market 70% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

63%Casa Pia v Sporting CP — over 2.5 goals20:15 · market 60% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

Every fixture

Championship

Sheffield Utd v Wrexham20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	28	34
Market	39	28	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Villarreal v Espanyol20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	63	22	15
Market	68	18	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 0519:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	27	39
Market	31	25	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ligue 1

Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	18	22	60
Market	10	14	76

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 16 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Nice v Rennes18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	26	44
Market	35	25	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Lille v Lens20:05

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	27	30
Market	37	28	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Primeira Liga

Casa Pia v Sporting CP20:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	8	17	75
Market	9	16	75

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Konyaspor v Galatasaray17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	13	21	66
Market	17	21	62

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✓Fiorentina 2–2 Atalanta over 2.5 goals 60%

1 of 1 settled since yesterday · 361 of 537 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 1/2, we claimed 49% · 566/1124 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 34% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 2/2, we claimed 57% · 650/1124 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 57% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

8 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-10-30 06:03 UK