Football ratings

Saturday 31 October 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

90%PSV Eindhoven — home winPSV Eindhoven v Willem II · 17:45 · market 89% · this strong, 87% land (475 cases)

88%Barcelona — home winBarcelona v Alaves · 20:00 · market 87% · this strong, 87% land (475 cases)

83%Feyenoord — home winFeyenoord v Fortuna Sittard · 15:30 · market 82% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)

76%FC Porto — home winFC Porto v Estoril · 20:30 · market 80% · this strong, 82% land (2,727 cases)

74%Stockport County — home winStockport County v AFC Wimbledon · 15:00 · market 75% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

73%Real Betis — home winReal Betis v Malaga · 17:30 · market 73% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

63%Atletico Madrid — away winLevante v Atletico Madrid · 13:00 · market 63% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 7 as one multiple returns about £40 if every one lands. The model puts that at 17%, the market at 18%, and the price needs 25% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

79%PSV Eindhoven v Willem II — over 2.5 goals17:45 · market 84% · this strong, 75% land (134 cases)

77%Barcelona v Alaves — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 78% · this strong, 75% land (134 cases)

70%Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard — over 2.5 goals15:30 · market 76% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

69%Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 73% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

67%Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund — over 2.5 goals17:30 · market 76% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

67%Fenerbahçe v Göztepe — over 2.5 goals16:00 · market 65% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

67%Werder Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 68% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

67%FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 64% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

66%FC Porto v Estoril — over 2.5 goals20:30 · market 59% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

63%Manchester City v Brighton — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 68% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%FC Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 65% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Cambuur v GO Ahead Eagles — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 66% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 65% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

63%Plymouth v Reading — over 2.5 goals12:30 · market 61% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — over 2.5 goals14:30 · market 63% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%West Ham v West Brom — over 2.5 goals15:00 · market 58% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Udinese v AS Roma — over 2.5 goals17:00 · market 61% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Real Betis v Malaga — over 2.5 goals17:30 · market 64% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen — over 2.5 goals17:45 · market 69% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Ajax v AZ Alkmaar — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 69% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Chelsea v Manchester United — over 2.5 goals12:30 · market 59% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

56%Albacete v Sabadell — under 2.5 goals20:00 · market 59% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Chelsea v Manchester United12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	26	35
Market	48	25	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Bournemouth v Leeds15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	27	22
Market	45	28	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Brentford v Nottingham Forest15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	28	29
Market	45	26	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Coventry v Sunderland15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	28	38
Market	30	29	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Hull City v Ipswich15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	27	29
Market	35	28	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Manchester City v Brighton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	60	22	18
Market	56	22	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Tottenham v Crystal Palace17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	27	24
Market	60	22	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Aston Villa v Fulham20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	41	28	31
Market	47	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Championship

Lincoln v Birmingham12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	29	41
Market	28	28	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Norwich v Watford12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	26	23
Market	62	22	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Stoke City v Preston12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	26	22
Market	53	25	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bolton v Bristol City15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	29	35
Market	32	27	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Burnley v Portsmouth15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	29	33
Market	42	28	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Middlesbrough v Charlton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	60	24	16
Market	76	15	9

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 16 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Millwall v Derby15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	56	25	19
Market	58	23	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Southampton v QPR15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	58	24	18
Market	49	25	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Swansea v Blackburn15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	27	27
Market	55	25	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

West Ham v West Brom15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	64	21	15
Market	59	23	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Wolves v Cardiff15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	66	21	13
Market	57	22	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

League One

Bradford v Huddersfield12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	29	34
Market	32	29	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Leyton Orient v Cambridge United12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	27	34
Market	36	28	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Plymouth v Reading12:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	26	32
Market	40	26	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Barnsley v Oxford United15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	28	39
Market	36	25	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Leicester v Stevenage15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	57	25	18
Market	58	22	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Mansfield Town v Notts County15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	54	26	20
Market	51	26	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Milton Keynes Dons v Doncaster15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	28	28
Market	47	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Peterborough v Luton15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	26	43
Market	28	23	49

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	74	18	8
Market	75	15	9

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Wigan v Bromley15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	28	23
Market	51	26	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Wycombe v Burton Albion15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	49	26	25
Market	62	21	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga

Levante v Atletico Madrid13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	15	22	63
Market	18	19	63

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	43	28	30
Market	38	30	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Real Betis v Malaga17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	73	18	9
Market	73	16	11

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Barcelona v Alaves20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	88	9	3
Market	87	9	5

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	77	23
Market	78	22

Under 4.5 goals: 56% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Serie A

Bologna v Monza14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	62	23	15
Market	57	24	19

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Udinese v AS Roma17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	21	22	57
Market	17	21	62

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

AC Milan v Inter19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	27	42
Market	27	26	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	62	21	17
Market	54	22	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	73	27

Under 4.5 goals: 73% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 0714:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	25	28
Market	48	24	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	25	42
Market	30	26	44

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	67	33
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FC Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	21	24	55
Market	23	25	53

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Werder Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	25	37
Market	36	24	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	67	33
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	64	21	15
Market	72	17	11

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	67	33
Market	76	24

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ligue 1

Estac Troyes v Le Mans19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	29	35
Market	42	28	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

Real Sociedad II v Girona13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	25	49
Market	28	25	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eibar v Almeria15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	27	34
Market	36	27	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Celta de Vigo II v Cordoba17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	27	41
Market	26	25	49

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	63	37

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Albacete v Sabadell20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	30	34
Market	41	32	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	41	59

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Scottish Premiership

Kilmarnock v ST Johnstone15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	29	23
Market	41	26	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	46	54
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Motherwell v ST Mirren15:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	26	24
Market	52	24	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	58	42

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	83	12	5
Market	82	11	7

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	70	30
Market	76	24

Under 4.5 goals: 68% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	26	30
Market	46	24	30

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

PSV Eindhoven v Willem II17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	90	8	3
Market	89	6	4

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	79	21
Market	84	16

Under 4.5 goals: 54% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ajax v AZ Alkmaar20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	46	25	28
Market	58	21	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Cambuur v GO Ahead Eagles20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	25	46
Market	34	25	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	66	34

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Primeira Liga

Moreirense v Estrela15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	28	36
Market	33	29	37

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FC Porto v Estoril20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	76	16	7
Market	80	14	6

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	66	34
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK10:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	27	38
Market	35	29	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	47	53

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Kocaelispor v Rizespor13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	26	26
Market	37	28	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Fenerbahçe v Göztepe16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	70	19	12
Market	71	17	12

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	67	33
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✓Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CPSporting CP away win 75%

✓Konyaspor 0–4 GalatasarayGalatasaray away win 66%

✓Le Havre 1–5 Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 goals 65%

✕Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP over 2.5 goals 63%

3 of 4 settled since yesterday · 364 of 541 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 5/8, we claimed 54% · 571/1132 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 45% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 4/8, we claimed 59% · 655/1132 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 52% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

60 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-10-31 06:08 UK