Football ratings

Monday 2 November 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

85%Benfica — home winBenfica v Alverca · 20:15 · market 76% · this strong, 85% land (1,418 cases)

£10 on all 1 as one multiple returns about £12 if every one lands. The model puts that at 85%, the market at 76%, and the price needs 85% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

75%Benfica v Alverca — over 2.5 goals20:15 · market 69% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Newcastle v Everton20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	42	28	30
Market	42	27	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga

Deportivo La Coruna v Osasuna20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	28	27
Market	44	30	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Serie A

Sassuolo v Fiorentina17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	27	40
Market	33	25	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Atalanta v Parma19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	65	22	14
Market	64	21	16

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Ligue 1

Lorient v Stade Brestois 2919:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	29	37
Market	39	30	32

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

Oviedo v Las Palmas15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	26	20
Market	56	24	20

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Valladolid v Leganes17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	58	25	17
Market	47	27	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 11 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Mallorca v Cadiz20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	58	25	17
Market	64	23	14

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Primeira Liga

Benfica v Alverca20:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	85	11	4
Market	76	14	10

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	75	25
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 69% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

GIL Vicente v Guimaraes20:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	30	36
Market	33	31	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	43	57

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Alanyaspor17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	28	40
Market	36	29	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

✓Como 1–0 VeneziaComo home win 75%

✓Lazio 2–1 CagliariLazio home win 70%

✕Falkirk 2–0 CelticCeltic away win 69%

✕Falkirk 2–0 Celtic over 2.5 goals 69%

✓Groningen 2–3 Sparta Rotterdam over 2.5 goals 66%

✕Como 1–0 Venezia over 2.5 goals 63%

✓Telstar 4–2 Utrecht over 2.5 goals 62%

✕Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Blackpool over 2.5 goals 62%

✓Racing Santander 0–3 Real Madrid over 2.5 goals 62%

✓Excelsior 0–9 Twente over 2.5 goals 62%

✕Getafe 3–1 Sevilla under 2.5 goals 59%

✓Maritimo 0–2 Santa Clara under 2.5 goals 58%

7 of 12 settled since yesterday · 389 of 582 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 22/33, we claimed 50% · 629/1225 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 44% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 15/33, we claimed 57% · 701/1225 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 50% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

11 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-11-02 06:03 UK