Football ratings

Tuesday 3 November 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

74%Barcelona — home winBarcelona v Aston Villa · 20:00 · market 76% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

73%Galatasaray — home winGalatasaray v VfB Stuttgart · 17:45 · market 44% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

£10 on all 2 as one multiple returns about £27 if every one lands. The model puts that at 54%, the market at 34%, and the price needs 37% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

73%Barcelona v Aston Villa — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 79% · this strong, 76% land (485 cases)

70%Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart — over 2.5 goals17:45 · market 70% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

65%Feyenoord v Inter — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 68% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

61%Manchester United v AS Roma — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 64% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 72% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

56%Portsmouth v Swansea — under 2.5 goals19:45 · market 55% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

55%Charlton v Bolton — under 2.5 goals19:45 · market 45% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Championship

Blackburn v Stoke City19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	45	28	27
Market	36	29	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	46	54

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Charlton v Bolton19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	30	32
Market	42	27	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Derby v Norwich19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	27	44
Market	27	26	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 83% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Portsmouth v Swansea19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	30	35
Market	35	29	36

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Preston v Sheffield Utd19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	24	28	49
Market	28	26	47

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

QPR v Burnley19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	28	33
Market	48	25	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Watford v Lincoln19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	36	29	36
Market	37	27	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Birmingham v Millwall20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	26	26
Market	48	26	26

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

West Brom v Southampton20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	26	35
Market	38	26	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

League One

Huddersfield v Luton19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	53	26	21
Market	47	25	28

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Wigan v Mansfield Town19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	29	39
Market	29	26	45

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

UEFA Champions League

New competition — experimental. The model has never been trained or tested on it, these clubs are rated across leagues whose ratings have never been calibrated against each other, and the probabilities use a fallback calibration. Treat them as much weaker than the domestic ones.

Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	73	17	10
Market	44	23	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	70	30
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 70% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 28 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP17:45

Not rated — Shakhtar Donetsk has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Atletico Madrid v Bayern München20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	38	26	36
Market	35	24	40

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Barcelona v Aston Villa20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	74	16	10
Market	76	13	10

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	73	27
Market	79	21

Under 4.5 goals: 66% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bodo/Glimt v Lille20:00

Not rated — Bodo/Glimt has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Feyenoord v Inter20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	25	44
Market	25	23	52

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	65	35
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 75% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Lask Linz v Slovan Bratislava20:00

Not rated — Slovan Bratislava has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Manchester United v AS Roma20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	32	26	42
Market	42	24	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	26	41
Market	22	21	57

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	72	28

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 17 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

How the calls did

✓Benfica 1–0 AlvercaBenfica home win 85%

✕Benfica 1–0 Alverca over 2.5 goals 75%

1 of 2 settled since yesterday · 390 of 585 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 6/11, we claimed 51% · 635/1237 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 41% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 6/11, we claimed 55% · 707/1237 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 49% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

17 rated · 3 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-11-03 06:04 UK