Football ratings

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

71%West Ham — away winCardiff v West Ham · 19:45 · market 49% · this strong, 74% land (779 cases)

65%Manchester City — away winRB Leipzig v Manchester City · 20:00 · market 62% · this strong, 68% land (2,602 cases)

£10 on all 2 as one multiple returns about £29 if every one lands. The model puts that at 46%, the market at 30%, and the price needs 34% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

69%RB Leipzig v Manchester City — over 2.5 goals20:00 · market 73% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

68%Cardiff v West Ham — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 70% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

61%Fenerbahçe v Liverpool — over 2.5 goals17:45 · market 69% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

60%Wrexham v Middlesbrough — over 2.5 goals19:45 · market 59% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

Every fixture

Championship

Cardiff v West Ham19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	12	17	71
Market	29	23	49

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	68	32
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 67% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 22 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Wrexham v Middlesbrough19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	27	25	48
Market	23	23	55

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 77% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Bristol City v Wolves20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	31	30	40
Market	28	27	45

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	45	55
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

League One

Oxford United v Reading19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	52	27	21
Market	36	26	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 16 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

UEFA Champions League

New competition — experimental. The model has never been trained or tested on it, these clubs are rated across leagues whose ratings have never been calibrated against each other, and the probabilities use a fallback calibration. Treat them as much weaker than the domestic ones.

AEK Athens FC v Real Madrid17:45

Not rated — AEK Athens FC has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Fenerbahçe v Liverpool17:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	25	25
Market	16	19	65

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	61	39
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 34 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	56	24	20
Market	55	23	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

FC Porto v Napoli20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	65	21	13
Market	49	26	25

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	60	40
Market	55	45

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 17 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Lens v Como20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	33	28	39
Market	30	24	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	53	47
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge KV20:00

Not rated — Club Brugge KV has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

RB Leipzig v Manchester City20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	16	20	65
Market	18	19	62

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	73	27

Under 4.5 goals: 70% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Slavia Praha v Arsenal20:00

Not rated — Slavia Praha has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

Viking v Sabah FA20:00

Not rated — Sabah FA has 0 prior matches in the store, most likely promoted from a division we do not collect. A rating built on that would be a guess wearing a percentage.

How the calls did

✓Barcelona 3–0 Aston VillaBarcelona home win 74%

✓Barcelona 3–0 Aston Villa over 2.5 goals 73%

✓Galatasaray 2–0 VfB StuttgartGalatasaray home win 73%

✕Galatasaray 2–0 VfB Stuttgart over 2.5 goals 70%

✓Feyenoord 0–3 Inter over 2.5 goals 65%

✓Manchester United 3–2 AS Roma over 2.5 goals 61%

✓Villarreal 0–6 Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 goals 60%

✕Portsmouth 3–1 Swansea under 2.5 goals 56%

✓Charlton 0–1 Bolton under 2.5 goals 55%

7 of 9 settled since yesterday · 397 of 594 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 8/17, we claimed 46% · 643/1254 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 40% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 9/17, we claimed 58% · 717/1254 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 51% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

9 rated · 4 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-11-04 06:04 UK