Football ratings

Friday 6 November 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

Nothing clears the bar today. The thresholds are set where the model has historically been as good as it claims — home win 70%, away win 60% — and a quiet day is a real answer, not a gap.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

60%Famalicao v Arouca — under 2.5 goals20:45 · market 55% · this strong, 61% land (2,190 cases)
56%Sevilla v Alaves — under 2.5 goals20:00 · market 56% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League
Everton v Coventry20:00
HomeDrawAway
Model572518
Market562420
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model5743
Market5545
Under 4.5 goals: 84%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
Championship
Derby v Bolton20:00
HomeDrawAway
Model292843
Market382636
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model4951
Market5743
Under 4.5 goals: 87%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 7 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
La Liga
Sevilla v Alaves20:00
HomeDrawAway
Model452925
Market502722
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model4456
Market4456
Under 4.5 goals: 90%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
Serie A
Venezia v Udinese19:45
HomeDrawAway
Model282646
Market422830
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model5446
Market5248
Under 4.5 goals: 82%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 16 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach19:30
HomeDrawAway
Model362737
Market392635
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model5842
Market5842
Under 4.5 goals: 83%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
Ligue 1
Toulouse v Strasbourg19:45
HomeDrawAway
Model432829
Market462628
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model5248
Market5743
Under 4.5 goals: 85%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
Eredivisie
Willem II v PEC Zwolle19:00
HomeDrawAway
Model292942
Market332542
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model4951
Market6139
Under 4.5 goals: 90%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
Primeira Liga
Famalicao v Arouca20:45
HomeDrawAway
Model333136
Market442827
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model4060
Market4555
Under 4.5 goals: 92%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway
Model is 9 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.
Super Lig
Gaziantep FK v Kasımpaşa17:00
HomeDrawAway
Model322840
Market372835
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Model5149
Market5149
Under 4.5 goals: 86%  ·  happens 86% of the time anyway

How the calls did

No calls have been settled since yesterday.

0 of 0 settled since yesterday · 401 of 600 since the model went live.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

9 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-11-06 06:02 UK