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The data behind the ratings

Saturday 1 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Falkirk v ST Mirren

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	6	11
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,530	1,467
Matches on record, all seasons	38	485
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	2.6	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	77	68
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	3.2	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	12.7
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	5.0
Shots per possession	0.216	0.223
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.147	0.142
Share of shots from inside the box	66.7%	64.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.15	1.08
Possession, last 5	50.0%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	5.4	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.167
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.057
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.103
Opponents' inside-box share	58.7%	60.1%
Save rate	55.9%	67.5%
Saves, last 5	2.4	1.7
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.32	0.68
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.2%	78.7%
Passes, last 5	385	488
Fouls, last 5	12.0	10.7
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	3
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.3% · Draw 26.8% · Away 25.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Aberdeen v Heart Of Midlothian

scottish-prem · 16:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	9	2
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,474	1,677
Matches on record, all seasons	597	520
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	76	77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.209	0.276
On-target shots per possession	0.054	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.144	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	69.2%	64.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	1.04
Possession, last 5	48.8%	54.2%
Corners, last 5	4.2	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.204	0.213
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.049
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.132	0.129
Opponents' inside-box share	61.9%	61.1%
Save rate	62.2%	63.5%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.16	0.98
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.6%	71.8%
Passes, last 5	397	388
Fouls, last 5	13.2	10.8
Cards, last 5	0.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	47
Home side won	16
Drawn	12
Away side won	19
Goals, home side	44
Goals, away side	58

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.4% · Draw 26.8% · Away 40.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ST Johnstone v Kilmarnock

scottish-prem · 13:00 UK

Finished 4–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	—	10
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,400	1,495
Matches on record, all seasons	561	561
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	441	77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.239	0.266
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.144	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	54.9%	59.4%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.83
Possession, last 5	59.0%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	5.2	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.299	0.216
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.147
Opponents' inside-box share	61.0%	69.3%
Save rate	69.8%	71.1%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	0.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	79.8%
Passes, last 5	426	432
Fouls, last 5	12.0	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	44
Home side won	20
Drawn	8
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	45
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.9% · Draw 27.6% · Away 29.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hibernian v Motherwell

scottish-prem · 15:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	5	4
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,601	1,585
Matches on record, all seasons	483	597
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	78	78
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.4	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.208	0.232
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.139	0.135
Share of shots from inside the box	65.0%	57.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.84	0.87
Possession, last 5	30.4%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.246	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.137	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	55.2%	70.3%
Save rate	72.1%	53.7%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.52	1.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	60.6%	80.4%
Passes, last 5	234	428
Fouls, last 5	10.8	10.8
Cards, last 5	3.8	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	41
Home side won	15
Drawn	11
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	59
Goals, away side	53

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.3% · Draw 28.4% · Away 27.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celtic v Dundee

scottish-prem · 18:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	1	8
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,793	1,477
Matches on record, all seasons	595	384
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	7	1
Unbeaten run	7	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	79	78
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.233	0.208
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.132	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	57.7%	69.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.84	1.12
Possession, last 5	61.2%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	7.0	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.112
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	69.6%	55.0%
Save rate	68.0%	69.6%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.85	1.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	74.0%
Passes, last 5	521	368
Fouls, last 5	15.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	4.0	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	26
Drawn	5
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	84
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 80.4% · Draw 12.0% · Away 7.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambuur v Excelsior

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	—	13
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,359	1,493
Matches on record, all seasons	172	350
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	6	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	448	82
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.8	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.255	0.296
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	62.6%	64.6%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.70
Possession, last 5	57.4%	53.6%
Corners, last 5	8.2	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.306	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.123	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	63.0%	68.4%
Save rate	62.9%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.2%	79.6%
Passes, last 5	442	447
Fouls, last 5	13.6	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	0.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.5% · Draw 27.7% · Away 34.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estoril v Famalicao

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	10	5
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,557	1,659
Matches on record, all seasons	366	238
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	12
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	83	83
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.195	0.228
On-target shots per possession	0.055	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.115	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	58.9%	68.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.86	1.12
Possession, last 5	53.6%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.163
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.065
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.099
Opponents' inside-box share	65.8%	61.1%
Save rate	64.1%	71.9%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.56	0.90
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.6%	83.6%
Passes, last 5	476	397
Fouls, last 5	13.0	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.1% · Draw 29.6% · Away 39.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.